Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southern China

Table 2

Goodness of fit test for a series of grain losses from 1978 to 2012.

Yunnan province
	Distribution	K-S test		A-D test		test		Overall rank
		Statistic	Rank	Statistic	Rank	Statistic	Rank
1	Beta	0.1764	8	5.202	10	N/A		10
2	Chi-square	0.0877	2	0.4897	4	1.4903	5	5
3	Fréchet	0.1764	9	1.0236	7	5.5586	7	7
4	Gamma	0.1035	5	0.7546	6	2.2523	6	6
5	Gen. Extreme Value	0.0963	4	0.2409	1	0.5478	2	1
6	Gen. Pareto	0.1225	7	11.5120	11	N/A		11
7	Log-Logistic	0.1151	6	0.3036	3	0.5458	1	4
8	Logistic	0.1774	10	1.8251	8	6.4070	8	8
9	Lognormal	0.0894	3	0.2589	2	0.5592	3	2
10	Normal	0.1833	11	2.1595	9	6.5536	9	9
11	Weibull	0.0798	1	0.7311	5	0.7837	4	3
Guizhou province
	Distribution	K-S test		A-D test		Chi-square test		Overall rank
		Statistic	Rank	Statistic	Rank	Statistic	Rank
1	Beta	0.1562	8	1.5245	8	8.0286	11	8
2	Chi-square	0.1588	9	1.6824	9	4.7667	9	9
3	Fréchet	0.1187	4	1.0227	7	1.2168	3	4
4	Gamma	0.1210	6	0.5784	5	3.4291	5	5
5	Gen. Extreme Value	0.1264	7	0.7660	6	3.1980	4	7
6	Gen. Pareto	0.1039	1	0.4822	3	4.5855	8	3
7	Log-Logistic	0.1046	2	0.4324	2	0.4519	2	2
8	Logistic	0.2278	11	2.3193	11	5.6073	10	11
9	Lognormal	0.1091	3	0.3650	1	0.1562	1	1
10	Normal	0.2108	10	2.0419	10	3.9747	7	10
11	Weibull	0.1209	5	0.5180	4	3.6622	6	6
Sichuan province
	Distribution	K-S test		A-D test		Chi-square test		Overall rank
		Statistic	Rank	Statistic	Rank	Statistic	Rank
1	Beta	0.1425	8	4.8683	11	N/A		11
2	Chi-square	0.1208	7	0.8607	7	1.5898	6	7
3	Fréchet	0.1553	10	1.6055	10	3.0417	8	9
4	Gamma	0.0898	5	0.2768	3	1.4756	5	4
5	Gen. Extreme Value	0.0897	4	0.2976	4	2.0143	7	6
6	Gen. Pareto	0.0724	1	0.2087	1	0.1338	1	1
7	Log-Logistic	0.0985	6	0.5200	6	0.2385	2	5
8	Logistic	0.1572	11	1.2122	9	3.5754	10	10
9	Lognormal	0.0842	3	0.4174	5	0.2948	3	3
10	Normal	0.1442	9	1.0566	8	3.1526	9	8
11	Weibull	0.0794	2	0.2112	2	0.9272	4	2
Guangxi province
	Distribution	K-S test		A-D test		test		Overall rank
		Statistic	Rank	Statistic	Rank	Statistic	Rank
1	Beta	0.2046	11	1.6791	9	6.1571	10	11
2	Chi-square	0.1443	8	0.8061	6	1.6388	4	6
3	Fréchet	0.2020	10	2.1161	10	3.8613	9	10
4	Gamma	0.0773	2	0.3536	3	1.6318	3	3
5	Gen. Extreme Value	0.0751	1	0.2642	1	0.1700	1	1
6	Gen. Pareto	0.0914	4	7.6277	11	N/A		9
7	Log-Logistic	0.1463	9	0.7665	5	3.8547	8	8
8	Logistic	0.1259	6	1.0020	8	3.3282	7	7
9	Lognormal	0.1302	7	0.6483	4	2.6984	6	4
10	Normal	0.1207	5	0.9180	7	2.4136	5	5
11	Weibull	0.0883	3	0.2875	2	0.5660	2	2
Guangdong province
	Distribution	K-S test		A-D test		Chi-square test		Overall rank
		Statistic	Rank	Statistic	Rank	Statistic	Rank
1	Beta	0.1609	8	1.5656	7	8.5130	9	10
2	Chi-square	0.3638	11	8.5133	11	16.3110	10	11
3	Fréchet	0.1308	7	0.6908	6	0.9239	3	4
4	Gamma	0.0771	3	0.3632	4	1.7721	5	3
5	Gen. Extreme Value	0.0860	6	0.2652	3	1.8178	6	6
6	Gen. Pareto	0.0724	2	3.9815	10	N/A		7
7	Log-Logistic	0.0789	4	0.2173	2	0.1448	1	2
8	Logistic	0.1911	10	2.1509	8	4.1516	8	8
9	Lognormal	0.0596	1	0.1545	1	0.9238	2	1
10	Normal	0.1837	9	2.2542	9	3.8282	7	9
11	Weibull	0.0811	5	0.4925	5	1.7007	4	5