Table 1: Results of the univariate regressions.

Regression on current factor Regression on lagged factor
Expected signCoefficientt-statP valueR 2Coefficientt-statP valueR 2lag(s)

Macroeconomic and cyclical indicators
 Construction−0.0053.150.0020.09−0.0042.580.0110.0612
 Gross fixed capital formation−0.0053.130.0020.09−0.0032.330.0040.0412
 Total gross external debt/GDP−0.0024.590.0000.170.023.900.0000.133
 Unemployment+ −0.0011.980.0490.04−0.0013.750.0000.1312
 Total consumption−0.0052.660.0090.06−0.0042.260.0260.051
 CPI−0.0015.670.0000.23−0.0014.860.0000.193
 Trade balance−0.0012.640.010.06−0.0013.060.0030.0912
Monetary indicators
 M1−0.0062.990.0030.08−0.0052.680.0080.073
 M2−0.0132.960.0040.08−0.012.500.0140.063
Interest rates
 Euribor 3 month+−0.0033.510.0000.10−0.0033.460.0000.113
Romanian banking system indicators
 Credit+/−−0.035.160.0000.2−0.024.100.0000.143
Greek fiscal crisis and banking indicators
 Loss Loan Provisions/total loans+0.462.660.0090.060.402.100.0400.043
 Spread Greek-German bond+0.013.240.0000.090.013.000.0000.083
 Greek 10-year bond+0.012.450.0210.050.013.500.0000.101
 ECB Reliance Index I+/−0.041.710.0900.030.073.870.0000.133

Only the significant indicators are presented on the table due to space limitations. The indicator spread Greek-German bond is also significant at lag 1.