Table 3: Causal relationships between the banking measures, inflation expectations, and the Shanghai A-index.

Causal RelationshipCoefficient SumChi-Squared StatisticNumber of LagsConfidence Level

Banking Business → Shanghai A−0.0230.937166%
Shanghai A → Banking Business 0.0415.387198%
Bankers’ Confidence → Shanghai A−0.3116.516198%
Shanghai A → Bankers’ Confidence−0.2300.814163%
Current Price Satisfaction → Banking Business−0.0502.214186%
Banking Business → Current Price Satisfaction−0.2390.026113%
Future Price Expectation → Banking Business 0.149 16.815199%
Banking Business → Future Price Expectation−1.1040.951167%
Current Price Satisfaction → Banker’s Confidence−0.6441.880183%
Banker’s Confidence → Current Price Satisfaction 0.0600.375145%
Future Price Expectation → Banker’s Confidence 0.7401.761181%
Banker’s Confidence → Future Price Expectation−0.0620.846164%
Current Price Satisfaction → Shanghai A 0.4241.593179%
Shanghai A → Current Price Satisfaction−0.2996.127198%
Future Price Expectation → Shanghai A 0.0000.00010%
Shanghai A → Future Price Expectation 0.1171.588179%

Note: The above statistics reflect Wald tests for Granger-causality based upon VARs estimated with one lag on each variable (all of which are in log growth rate form); relationships significant at the 90% confidence level or higher are depicted in bold print.