Price Responsiveness of Cigarette Demand in US: Retail Scanner Data (1994–2007)
Table 4
Distributed lag adjustment path of per capita cigarette sales.
(a)
Quarters after the shock
Model 1
Model 2
Own-price
Cross-price
CIAL
Own-price
Cross-price
CIAL
Change
%
Change
%
Change
%
Change
%
Change
%
Change
%
0
−0.379
114
0.014
18
−0.00062
26
−0.376
116
0.014
20
−0.00022
14
1
−0.405
122
0.028
37
−0.00106
44
−0.401
123
0.027
39
−0.00053
34
2
−0.333
100
0.037
50
−0.00129
54
−0.328
101
0.035
50
−0.00075
47
3
−0.322
97
0.044
59
−0.00148
62
−0.316
97
0.041
59
−0.00090
57
4
−0.335
100
0.050
66
−0.00165
69
−0.328
101
0.047
67
−0.00103
65
5
0.055
73
−0.00180
75
0.051
73
−0.00114
72
6
0.059
78
−0.00191
80
0.055
78
−0.00122
77
7
0.062
82
−0.00200
84
0.058
82
−0.00129
81
8
0.065
86
−0.00208
87
0.060
86
−0.00135
85
9
0.067
88
−0.00214
89
0.062
89
−0.00139
88
10
0.068
91
−0.00219
91
0.064
91
−0.00143
90
11
0.070
92
−0.00222
93
0.065
92
−0.00146
92
12
0.071
94
−0.00226
94
0.066
94
−0.00148
94
13
0.072
95
−0.00228
95
0.067
95
−0.00150
95
14
0.073
96
−0.00230
96
0.067
96
−0.00152
96
15
0.073
97
−0.00232
97
0.068
97
−0.00153
97
(b)
Quarters after the initial shock
Model 3
Model 4
Own-price
Cross-price
CIAL±
Own-price
Cross-price
CIAL
Change
%
Change
%
Change
%
Change
%
Change
%
Change
%
0
−0.374
116
0.013
21
—
—
−0.376
116
0.014
20
−0.00031
19
1
−0.398
123
0.024
40
—
—
−0.400
124
0.026
39
−0.00061
38
2
−0.326
101
0.031
51
—
—
−0.327
101
0.035
51
−0.00081
50
3
−0.314
97
0.036
60
—
—
−0.316
98
0.040
59
−0.00095
59
4
−0.327
101
0.041
67
—
—
−0.328
101
0.046
67
−0.00107
67
5
0.044
74
—
—
0.050
73
−0.00117
73
6
0.048
79
—
—
0.054
78
−0.00126
78
7
0.050
83
—
—
0.056
82
−0.00132
82
8
0.052
86
—
—
0.059
86
−0.00138
86
9
0.054
89
—
—
0.060
88
−0.00142
88
10
0.055
91
—
—
0.062
91
−0.00145
91
11
0.056
92
—
—
0.063
92
−0.00148
92
12
0.057
94
—
—
0.064
94
−0.00151
94
13
0.057
95
—
—
0.065
95
−0.00152
95
14
0.058
96
—
—
0.066
96
−0.00154
96
15
0.059
97
—
—
0.066
97
−0.00155
97
±Long-run effect of smoke-free laws on cigarette sales is not statistically significant in this model.Therefore, the adjustment path is not calculated.Percent change is the size of the response in a quarter as a percentage of the long-run response.