Table 2: Error correction coefficients.

Coefficient -statistic

Real discretionary consumption expenditures−0.4940−2.53
Real personal disposable income0.33871.51
Revolving consumer credit−0.3978−1.98
Nonrevolving consumer credit0.13280.92
Debt-service ratio−0.1098−0.60

Error correction model coefficients on lagged cointegrating residual from MARS model; regressions specify the change in the variable against a constant and up to three own lagged changes, and up to three lagged changes in each basis function identified by the MARS model and the lagged cointegrating regression residual. Robust standard errors using the Newey-West covariance estimator with a lag length of two were used to construct the -statistics.