The Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Mortality and the Business Cycle in Canada

Table 2

Error correction model (2). Total death rate.

	Without dummy variable			With dummy variable
	Coefficient	Standard error	𝑡-statistic	Coefficient	Standard error	𝑡-statistic
Short-run results
Constant	1.488	0.553	2.689	1.873	0.601	3.117
ΔUR𝑡	−0.045	0.026	−3.281	−0.085	0.025	−3.323
ΔrGDPpc𝑡	−8.30𝐸−05	4.75𝐸−05	−1.746	−9.89𝐸−05	4.80𝐸−05	−2.061
ΔrHEpc𝑡	−7.66𝐸−05	2.81𝐸−04	−0.273	−1.74𝐸−04	2.84𝐸−04	−0.612
DR𝑡−1 (𝜑1=𝛽1)	−0.188	0.055	−3.398	−0.238	0.065	−3.742
UR𝑡−1 (𝛽2)	−0.010	0.012	−0.8649	−0.003	0.014	−0.196
rGDPpc𝑡−1 (𝛽3)	3.29𝐸−06	2.17𝐸−06	1.518	8.07𝐸−06	2.16𝐸−05	0.374
rHEpc𝑡−1 (𝛽4)	−3.76𝐸−05	0.001	−0.226	−1.38𝐸−04	1.77𝐸−04	−0.782
Dummy				0.011	0.007	1.529
	AIC = −1.416	𝑅-square = 0.403		AIC = −1.4297	𝑅-square = 0.432
	SSR = 0.584	𝐹-statistic = 4.530		SSR = 0.5557	𝐹-statistic = 4.369
	DW = 2.660	LM 𝐹-stat = 3.705		DW = 2.583	LM 𝐹-stat = 3.094
Long-run results
UR𝑡−1 (𝜑2)	−0.054	0.064	−0.836	−0.0105	0.053	−0.199
rGDPpc𝑡−1 (𝜑3)	1.75𝐸−05	1.22𝐸−04	1.385	3.39𝐸−05	9.13𝐸−05	0.372
rHEpc𝑡−1 (𝜑4)	−2.00𝐸−04	9.02𝐸−04	−0.188	−5.03𝐸−04	7.60𝐸−04	−0.763

Note: in Tables 2 through 6, columns 1 to 3 show results without dummy, while results in columns 4 to 6 show results including the dummy allowing for a structural break. All standard errors for the long-run estimates are approximated using the Delta Method.