The Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Mortality and the Business Cycle in Canada

Table 6

Modified error correction model (5). Male death rate.

	Without dummy variable			With dummy variable
	Coefficient	Standard error	𝑡-statistic	Coefficient	Standard error	𝑡-statistic
Short-run results
Constant	1.623	0.383	4.244	3.543	0.670	5.064
ΔMDR𝑡−1	−0.021	0.142	−0.147	0.097	0.130	0.743
ΔUR𝑡−1	−0.007	0.016	−0.444	0.015	0.016	0.922
ΔrGDPpc𝑡−1	7.03𝐸−05	3.49𝐸−05	2.014	1.11𝐸−04	3.95𝐸−05	2.808
ΔrHEpc𝑡−1	4.10𝐸−05	2.00𝐸−04	0.263	−1.05𝐸−04	1.28𝐸−04	−0.819
ΔMDR𝑡−2	0.138	0.126	1.097	0.251	0.117	2.151
ΔUR𝑡−2	0.033	0.017	1.905	0.046	0.016	2.916
ΔrGDPpc𝑡−2	4.78𝐸−05	3.47𝐸−05	1.376	1.01𝐸−04	5.01𝐸−05	2.014
ΔrHEpc𝑡−2	−1.09𝐸−04	1.91𝐸−04	−0.570	−2.22𝐸−04	2.36𝐸−04	−0.942
ΔMDR𝑡−3	−0.266	1.30E−01	−2.039	−0.148	0.121	−1.223
ΔUR𝑡−3	0.022	0.0184	1.212	0.037	0.017	2.179
ΔrGDPpc𝑡−3	6.56𝐸−05	3.63𝐸−05	1.807	1.19𝐸−04	6.46𝐸−05	2.305
ΔrHEpc𝑡−3	−2.00𝐸−04	1.91𝐸−04	−1.046	−2.75𝐸−04	1.89𝐸−04	−1.459
ΔMDR𝑡−4	−0.162	0.1735	−0.934	−0.067	0.156	−0.432
ΔUR𝑡−4	−0.011	0.0150	−0.720	0.006	0.014	0.413
ΔrGDPpc𝑡−4	6.25𝐸−06	4.48𝐸−06	1.396	1.63𝐸−04	7.88𝐸−05	2.067
ΔrHEpc𝑡−4	1.00𝐸−04	2.00𝐸−04	0.604	5.50𝐸−05	1.44𝐸−04	0.382
DR𝑡−1 (𝜑1=𝛽1)	−0.143	0.036	−3.944	−0.486	0.114	−4.257
UR𝑡−1 (𝛽2)	−0.020	8.72𝐸−03	−2.342	−0.044	0.011	−4.094
rGDPpc𝑡−1 (𝛽3)	−8.96𝐸−05	2.86𝐸−05	−3.134	−9.5𝐸−05	2.44𝐸−05	−3.893
rHEpc𝑡−1 (𝛽4)	5.53𝐸−04	2.09𝐸−04	2.640	6.68𝐸−04	1.97𝐸−04	3.388
Dummy				−0.024	0.008	−3.129
	AIC = −2.804	𝑅-square = 0.693		AIC = −3.055	𝑅-square = 0.770
	SSR = 0.079	𝐹-statistic = 3.384		SSR = 0.059	𝐹-statistic = 4.634
	DW = 2.114	LM 𝐹-stat = 0.167		DW = 2.227	LM 𝐹-stat = 1.450
Long-run results
UR𝑡−1 (𝜑2)	−0.1428	0.0622	2.2969	−0.0909	0.0160	5.6657
rGDPpc𝑡−1 (𝜑3)	6.27𝐸−04	2.04𝐸−04	3.0661	2.03𝐸−04	6.27𝐸−05	3.2308
rHEpc𝑡−1 (𝜑4)	−3.87𝐸−03	1.55𝐸−03	−2.4998	−1.30𝐸−03	4.40𝐸−04	−2.9457