Economics Research International

Review Article

Commodity Food Prices: Review and Empirics

Table 9

State vector analysis and regression effects in final state at time 2012 .
State vector analysis at period 2012
 ValueProbability
Level ( )6.47980
Seasonal test57.32373
Cycle 1 ( ) amplitude0.03280.NaN
Seasonal effects ( )
PeriodValueProbability
10.00616
20.01636
30.01594
40.00958
50.01404
6−0.00147
70.00260
8−0.00819
9−0.01116
10−0.01867
11−0.01896
12−0.00620
Regression effects in final state at time 2012
 CoefficientProbability
0.32500
0.12425
0.10608
−0.21217
lcoil0.03990
lreer−0.78676
Interventions ( )
 CoefficientProbability CoefficientProbability
Level break 1994 0.05223 Outlier 1997 0.02872
Level break 1995 −0.04487 Outlier 1999 −0.04228
Level break 1995 0.05778 Outlier 1999 −0.03371
Level break 1996 0.06678 Outlier 2003 −0.02340
Level break 1996 −0.04478 Outlier 2006 −0.02928
Level break 1998 −0.05266 Outlier 2008 0.03060
Level break 1999 −0.03371 Outlier 2008 −0.05242
Level break 2000 0.03415[0.0127]Outlier 2011 −0.04188[0.0002]
Level break 2001 0.03540[0.0037]Outlier 2012 −0.02677[0.0155]
Level break 2003 −0.04459[0.0027]   
Level break 2004 0.05025[0.0006]   
Level break 2006 0.07013[0.0000]   
Level break 2007 0.04911[0.0014]   
Level break 2008 0.03841[0.0124]   
Level break 2009 0.07851[0.0000]   
Level break 2009 −0.06275[0.0000]   
Level break 2010 0.07104[0.0000]   
Level break 2012 0.07473[0.0000]   
Values in brackets are values.