Table 2: Marginal effect of land use model.

Land use in 2007(1)(2)(3)(4) (5)
AnyDevelopmentAgricultureForestUndeveloped

Development (2010)

Returns to development *** *** *** 7 ***
( )( )( )( )( )
Returns to agriculture *** * ***
( )( )( )( )( )
Returns to forestry−0.00262*** * ** 0.000446***
( )( )( )( )( )
Distance to urban growth −0.00115***0.000146−0.000209** 0.000232
Area(0.000211)( )( )( )(0.000166)
No. of feedstock processors−0.00662***−0.00213***0.000338 0.00219**
( / 200 miles)(0.00106)(0.000371)(0.000463)(0.000138)(0.000882)
Soil Class 10.0623***0.00311−0.003190.000393−0.00864
(0.00742)(0.00230)(0.00254)(0.00101)(0.00612)
Soil Class 20.0359***0.00591**−0.00495**−0.0002630.00192
(0.00545)(0.00234)(0.00228)(0.000674)(0.00489)
Soil Class 30.0152**0.00487**−0.00518**−0.0005920.00156
(0.00744)(0.00210)(0.00252)(0.000881)(0.00645)
Property tax−0.01030.000958−0.00357−0.00223−0.0306**
(0.0149)(0.00531)(0.00716)(0.00225)(0.0124)
% Neighbors in agriculture0.497***0.0242***0.0314***0.00944***0.106***
(0.0116)(0.00452)(0.00827)(0.00234)(0.0107)
% Neighbors in development0.0505***0.0138**−0.00697−0.002700.0950***
(0.0147)(0.00570)(0.00687)(0.00317)(0.0130)
% Neighbors in forestry−0.490***0.0245***0.0156**−0.002410.0515***
(0.0103)(0.00437)(0.00715)(0.00192)(0.00984)
Neighbors returns to development0.00285***
(0.000117)
Neighbors returns to forestry ***
( )

Agriculture (2010)

Returns to development *** *** *** ***
( )( )( )( )( )
Returns to agriculture *** *** *** ***
( )( )( )( ) )
Returns to forestry−0.000321*** *** −0.000355*** **
( )( )( )( )( )
Distance to urban growth −0.000164*** *** 0.000607*** * −0.000131***
Area( )( )(0.000170)( )( )
No. of feedstock processors0.000661***0.000228***−0.00367*** 0.000417*
( / 200 miles)(0.000200)( )(0.000840)( )(0.000215)
Soil Class 10.0198***0.00346**0.003520.00474**0.0206***
(0.00192)(0.00137)(0.00565)(0.00193)(0.00655)
Soil Class 20.0105***0.000838***0.002450.00171***0.00526***
(0.00104)(0.000263)(0.00466)(0.000560)(0.00130)
Soil Class 3−0.001870.000277−0.0200*** 0.000230
(0.00122)(0.000568)(0.00677)(0.000691)(0.00194)
Property tax−0.00541*−0.00144*−0.0205−0.00226*−0.00589*
(0.00320)(0.000763)(0.0135)(0.00137)(0.00333)
% Neighbors in agriculture0.0129***−0.00113***−0.0141−0.001850.00244
(0.00245)−0.000436−0.0149−0.00148−0.00206
% Neighbors in development0.147*** .0004030.0445***0.00461***0.0105***
(0.00478)−0.000483−0.0114 .00127−0.00216
% Neighbors in forestry−0.0261***−0.00250***−0.00553−0.00193*−0.00147
(0.00223)−0.000566−0.0126−0.00107−0.00202
Neighbors returns to development0.000185***
( )
Neighbors returns to forestry ***
( )

Forestry (2010)

Returns to development 5*** *** ** ***
( )( )( )( )( )
Returns to agriculture 5*** *** *** ** 5***
( )( )( )( )( )
Returns to forestry0.00452*** ** 0.000188*** ***
(0.000105)( )( )( )( )
Distance to urban growth ** −0.000226** −0.000244***
Area(0.000222)( 5)( )( )( )
No. of feedstock processors0.0137***0.000612***−0.000329 0.00124***
( / 200 miles)(0.00119)(0.000105)(0.000446)(0.000280)(0.000294)
Soil Class 1−0.0666***−0.0006870.00701* *** 0.00224
(0.00744)(0.000495)(0.00382)(0.00311)(0.00263)
Soil Class 2−0.0423***0.000400−0.00169 *** 0.00543***
(0.00576)(0.000404)(0.00221)(0.00150)(0.00146)
Soil Class 3−0.0253***−0.0003650.004460.0009140.00451*
(0.00769)(0.000597)(0.00320)(0.00198)(0.00272)
Property tax−0.0475***−0.00546***0.0482***0.00295 *
(0.0181)(0.00157)(0.00796)(0.00479)(0.00530)
% Neighbors in agriculture−0.0405***−0.001430.002840.007170.00151
(0.0144)(0.00110)(0.00794)(0.00444)(0.00338)
% Neighbors in development0.243***−0.00620***−0.0134**0.0199*** ***
(0.0171)(0.00177)(0.00595)(0.00556)(0.00484)
% Neighbors in forestry1.243***0.001460.0267***0.0325***0.0128***
(0.0122)(0.000937)(0.00630)(0.00330)(0.00269)
Neighbors returns to development−0.00400***
(0.000130)
Neighbors returns to forestry 5***
( )

Undeveloped (2010)

Returns to development *** *** *** *** ***
( )( )( )( )( )
Returns to agriculture *** *** ***
( )( )( )( )( )
Returns to forestry−0.00158*** *** −0.000510***
( )( )( )( )( )
Distance to urban growth 0.00131*** −0.000171 ** 0.000143
Area(0.000162)( )(0.000113)( )(0.000181)
No. of feedstock processors−0.00777***0.00129***0.00366***0.000113−0.00385***
( / 200 miles)(0.000902)(0.000352)(0.000548)(0.000234)(0.000948)
Soil Class 1−0.0155***−0.00588***−0.00734**0.00454**−0.0142
(0.00581)(0.00179)(0.00336)(0.00225)(0.00900)
Soil Class 2−0.00415−0.00715***0.004200.00324***−0.0126**
(0.00457)(0.00229)(0.00346)(0.00122)(0.00523)
Soil Class 30.0119**−0.00478**0.0207***−0.000329−0.00630
(0.00602)(0.00193)(0.00553)(0.00164)(0.00716)
Property tax0.0632***0.00594−0.0241***0.001550.0469***
(0.0126)(0.00502)(0.00824)(0.00400)(0.0137)
% Neighbors in agriculture−0.469***−0.0216***−0.0202**−0.0148***−0.110***
(0.00925)(0.00436)(0.00962)(0.00347)(0.0113)
% Neighbors in development−0.441***−0.00721−0.0241***−0.0218***−0.0921***
(0.0112)(0.00540)(0.00695)(0.00440)(0.0139)
% Neighbors in forestry−0.728***−0.0234***−0.0367***−0.0282***−0.0628***
(0.00771)(0.00423)(0.00829)(0.00247)(0.0103)
Neighbors returns to development0.000970***
( )
Neighbors returns to forestry ***
( )
Pseudo- 0.34540.12970.07920.05560.0714

Observations113,95333,38014,22943,74022,609

Reading across the column within a section displays the marginal effects on that section’s predicted land use in 2010, given the 2007 land use shown in the column. For example, the agriculture section in column (3) reports the marginal effects on the probability of being in agriculture in 2007 given that the parcel was in forestry in 2007. Standard errors in parentheses; *** < 0.01, ** < 0.05, * < 0.1.