About this Journal Submit a Manuscript Table of Contents
International Journal of Ecology
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 140354, 12 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/140354
Review Article

Adaptation of Australia’s Marine Ecosystems to Climate Change: Using Science to Inform Conservation Management

1C2O Consulting, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia
2School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia
3Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
4Australia’s Climate Change Adaptation Research Network for Marine Biodiversity and Resources, Australia

Received 4 November 2013; Accepted 26 December 2013; Published 25 February 2014

Academic Editor: Ulisses Azeiteiro

Copyright © 2014 Johanna E. Johnson and Neil J. Holbrook. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. T. Wernberg, D. A. Smale, F. Tuya et al., “An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 3, pp. 78–82, 2013.
  2. A. Tobin, A. Schlaff, R. Tobin et al., “Adapting to change: minimising uncertainty about the effects of rapidly-changing environmental conditions on the Queensland Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery,” Final Report to the Fisheries Research & Development Corporation, Project 2008/103 no. 11, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia, 2010.
  3. K. Osborne, A. M. Dolman, S. C. Burgess, and K. A. Johns, “Disturbance and the dynamics of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (1995–2009),” PLoS One, vol. 6, no. 3, Article ID e17516, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  4. E. Woolsey, S. J. Bainbridge, M. J. Kingsford, and M. Byrne, “Impacts of cyclone Hamish at One Tree Reef: integrating environmental and benthic habitat data,” Marine Biology, vol. 159, no. 4, pp. 793–803, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  5. Climate Commission Secretariat, “The critical decade: extreme events,” Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Australian Government, Canberra, Australia, 2013.
  6. N. A. Marshall, R. C. Tobin, P. A. Marshall, M. Gooch, and A. J. Hobday, “Vulnerability of marine resource users to extreme weather events,” Ecosystems, vol. 16, pp. 797–809, 2013.
  7. K. E. Trenberth, “Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change,” Climatic Change, vol. 115, pp. 283–290, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  8. E. C. J. Oliver, S. J. Wotherspoon, M. A. Chamberlain, and N. J. Holbrook, “Projected Tasman Sea extremes in sea surfacetemperature through the 21st Century,” Journal of Climate, vol. 27, no. 5, pp. 1981–1998, 2014.
  9. J. B. C. Jackson, “The future of the oceans past,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, vol. 365, no. 1558, pp. 3765–3778, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  10. S. Carpenter, B. Walker, J. M. Anderies, and N. Abel, “From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what?” Ecosystems, vol. 4, no. 8, pp. 765–781, 2001.
  11. L. H. Gunderson and L. Pritchard, Resilience and the Behavior of Large Scale Systems, Island Press, Washington, DC, USA, 2002.
  12. M. Nyström, N. A. J. Graham, J. Lokrantz, and A. V. Norström, “Capturing the cornerstones of coral reef resilience: linking theory to practice,” Coral Reefs, vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 795–809, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  13. H. B. Hönisch, A. Ridgwell, D. N. Schmidt, et al., “The geological record of ocean acidification,” Science, vol. 335, no. 6072, pp. 1058–1063, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  14. T. R. Carter, M. L. Parry, H. Harasawa, and S. Nishioka, “IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations,” Department of Geography, University College, London, UK, 1994.
  15. J. B. Smith, “Setting priorities for adapting to climate change,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 251–264, 1997. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  16. I. M. Côté and E. S. Darling, “Rethinking ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change,” PLoS Biology, vol. 8, no. 7, article 5, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  17. K. R. Anthony and J. A. Maynard, “Coral reefs in the emergency room: continued carbon emissions will increase the need for intensive care,” Carbon Management, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 215–218, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  18. J. E. Cinner, C. Huchery, E. S. Darling et al., “Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change,” PLoS One, vol. 8, no. 9, Article ID e74321, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  19. W. B. Foden, S. H. M. Butchart, S. N. Stuart, J.-C. Vie, H. R. Akcakaya, et al., “Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals,” PLoS One, vol. 8, no. 6, Article ID e65427, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  20. D. J. Welch and J. E. Johnson, “Assessing the vulnerability of Torres Strait fisheries and supporting habitats to climate change,” Report to the Australian Fisheries Management Authority, C2O Fisheries, Australia, 2013.
  21. M. Lockwood, J. Davidson, M. Hockings, M. Haward, and M. Kriwoken, “Marine biodiversity conservation governance and management: regime requirements for global environmental change,” Ocean & Coastal Management, vol. 69, pp. 160–172, 2012.
  22. B. Mapstone, P. Appleford, K. Broderick, et al., “National climate change adaptation research plan for marine biodiversity and resources,” National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, Australia, 2010.
  23. N. J. Holbrook and J. E. Johnson, “Australia's marine biodiversity and resources in a changing climate: a review of impacts and adaptation 2009–2012,” National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, Australia, 2012.
  24. N. R. Pitt, E. S. Poloczanska, and A. J. Hobday, “Climate-driven range changes in Tasmanian intertidal fauna,” Marine and Freshwater Research, vol. 61, no. 9, pp. 963–970, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  25. P. R. Last, W. T. White, D. C. Gledhill et al., “Long-term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna: a response to climate change and fishing practices,” Global Ecology and Biogeography, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 58–72, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  26. T. Wernberg, B. D. Russell, P. J. Moore et al., “Impacts of climate change in a global hotspot for temperate marine biodiversity and ocean warming,” Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, vol. 400, no. 1-2, pp. 7–16, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  27. D. A. Smale and T. Wernberg, “Extreme climatic event drives range contraction of a habitat forming species,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B, vol. 280, pp. 201228–201229, 2013.
  28. G. De'ath, K. Fabricius, H. Sweatman, and M. Puotinen, “The 27 year decline of coral cover on the GBR and its causes,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 109, pp. 17995–17999, 2012.
  29. L. J. McKenzie, C. Collier, and M. Waycott, “Reef Rescue Marine Monitoring Program: inshore seagrass annual report 2010/2011,” Tech. Rep., Fisheries Queensland, Cairns, Australia, 2012.
  30. A. Thompson, P. Costello, J. Davidson et al., “Reef Rescue Marine Monitoring Program,” Report of AIMS Activities—Inshore Coral Reef Monitoring 2011. Report for Reef and Rain Forest Research Centre, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Australia, 2011.
  31. C. R. Johnson, S. C. Banks, N. S. Barrett et al., “Climate change cascades: shifts in oceanography, species' ranges and subtidal marine community dynamics in eastern Tasmania,” Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, vol. 400, no. 1-2, pp. 17–32, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  32. S. D. Ling, C. R. Johnson, S. D. Frusher, and K. R. Ridgway, “Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 106, no. 52, pp. 22341–22345, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  33. T. Wernberg, B. D. Russell, M. S. Thomsen et al., “Seaweed communities in retreat from ocean warming,” Current Biology, vol. 21, no. 21, pp. 1828–1832, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  34. A. E. Bates, N. S. Barrett, R. D. Stuart-Smith, N. J. Holbrook, P. A. Thompson, and G. J. Edgar, “Resilience and signatures of tropicalization in protected reef fish communities,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 4, pp. 62–67, 2014.
  35. T. Wernberg, M. S. Thomsen, F. Tuya, G. A. Kendrick, P. A. Staehr, and B. D. Toohey, “Decreasing resilience of kelp beds along a latitudinal temperature gradient: potential implications for a warmer future,” Ecology Letters, vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 685–694, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  36. K. Benkendorff and R. Przeslawski, “Multiple measures are necessary to assess rarity in macro-molluscs: a case study from southeastern Australia,” Biodiversity and Conservation, vol. 17, no. 10, pp. 2455–2478, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  37. K. R. Ridgway, “Long-term trend and decadal variability of the southward penetration of the East Australian Current,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 34, no. 13, Article ID L13613, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  38. C. Sun, M. Feng, R. J. Matear et al., “Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario for Australian boundary currents,” Journal of Climate, vol. 25, no. 8, pp. 2947–2962, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  39. G. De'ath, K. E. Fabricius, and J. M. Lough, “Yes—coral calcification rates have decreased in the last twenty-five years,” Marine Geology, vol. 346, pp. 400–402, 2013.
  40. S. K. Wilson, A. M. Dolman, A. J. Cheal, M. J. Emslie, M. S. Pratchett, and H. P. A. Sweatman, “Maintenance of fish diversity on disturbed coral reefs,” Coral Reefs, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 3–14, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  41. B. C. Congdon, C. A. Erwin, D. R. Peck, G. B. Baker, M. C. Double, and P. O'Neill, “Vulnerability of seabirds on the GBR to climate change,” in Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef: A Vulnerability Assessment, J. E. Johnson and P. A. Marshall, Eds., pp. 427–463, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Australia, 2007.
  42. C. A. Devney, M. Short, and B. C. Congdon, “Cyclonic and anthropogenic influences on tern populations,” Wildlife Research, vol. 36, no. 5, pp. 368–378, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  43. C. A. Devney, M. Julian Caley, and B. C. Congdon, “Plasticity of noddy parents and offspring to sea-surface temperature anomalies,” PLoS One, vol. 5, no. 7, Article ID e11891, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  44. B. D. Russell, J.-A. I. Thompson, L. J. Falkenberg, and S. D. Connell, “Synergistic effects of climate change and local stressors: CO2 and nutrient-driven change in subtidal rocky habitats,” Global Change Biology, vol. 15, no. 9, pp. 2153–2162, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  45. M. Byrne, “Impact of ocean warming and ocean acidification on marine invertebrate life history stages: vulnerability and potential for persistance in a changing ocean,” in Oceanography & Marine Biology, R. N. Gibson, R. J. A. Atkinson, and J. D. M. Gordon, Eds., vol. 49 of Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review, pp. 1–42, 2011.
  46. M. Byrne, M. Ho, E. Wong et al., “Unshelled abalone and corrupted urchins: development of marine calcifiers in a Changing Ocean,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B, vol. 278, no. 1716, pp. 2376–2383, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  47. R. Berkelmans, G. De'ath, S. Kininmonth, and W. J. Skirving, “A comparison of the 1998 and 2002 coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef: spatial correlation, patterns, and predictions,” Coral Reefs, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 74–83, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  48. J. Oliver and R. Berkelmans, “Patterns of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef,” in Coral Bleaching: Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences, M. J. H. van Oppen and J. M. Lough, Eds., vol. 205 of Ecological Studies, p. 192, Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, 2009.
  49. A. Baird and V. McGrath, “Coral bleaching on Thursday Island and environs in 2010,” Report to the Torres Strait Regional Authority, Queensland, Australia, 2011.
  50. O. Hoegh-Guldberg, P. J. Mumby, A. J. Hooten et al., “Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification,” Science, vol. 318, no. 5857, pp. 1737–1742, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  51. P. G. Cardoso, D. Raffaelli, and M. A. Pardal, “The impact of extreme weather events on the seagrass Zostera noltii and related Hydrobia ulvae population,” Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 56, no. 3, pp. 483–492, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  52. G. De’ath, J. M. Lough, and K. E. Fabricius, “Declining coral calcification on the Great Barrier Reef,” Science, vol. 323, no. 5910, pp. 116–119, 2009.
  53. K. E. Fabricius, C. Langdon, S. Uthicke et al., “Losers and winners in coral reefs acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 1, pp. 165–169, 2011.
  54. M. Turner and G. N. Batianoff, “Vulnerability of island flora and fauna in the Great Barrier Reef to climate change,” in Climate Change and the Great Great Barrier Reef: A Vulnerability Assessment, J. E. Johnson and P. A. Marshall, Eds., pp. 622–666, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Australian Government, Townsville, Australia, 2007.
  55. J. L. Dawson and S. G. Smithers, “Shoreline and beach volume change between 1967 and 2007 at Raine Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia,” Global and Planetary Change, vol. 72, no. 3, pp. 141–154, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  56. M. M. P. B. Fuentes, J. A. Maynard, M. Guinea, I. P. Bell, P. J. Werdell, and M. Hamann, “Proxy indicators of sand temperature help project impacts of global warming on sea turtles in northern Australia,” Endangered Species Research, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 33–40, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  57. M. M. P. B. Fuentes, C. J. Limpus, and M. Hamann, “Vulnerability of sea turtle nesting grounds to climate change,” Global Change Biology, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 140–153, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  58. H. Yamano, K. Sugihara, and K. Nomura, “Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 38, no. 4, Article ID L04601, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  59. P. M. Groffman, J. S. Baron, T. Blett et al., “Ecological thresholds: the key to successful environmental management or an important concept with no practical application?” Ecosystems, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 1–13, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  60. P. G. Harnik, H. K. Lotze, S. C. Anderson, et al., “Extinctions in ancient and modern seas,” Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 27, pp. 608–617, 2012.
  61. J. P. Steffensen, K. K. Andersen, M. Bigler, et al., “High-resolution Greenland ice core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years,” Science, vol. 321, no. 5889, pp. 680–684, 2008.
  62. M. McCulloch, S. Fallon, T. Wyndham, E. Hendy, J. Lough, and D. Barnes, “Coral record of increased sediment flux to the inner Great Barrier Reef since European settlement,” Nature, vol. 421, no. 6924, pp. 727–730, 2003. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  63. M. Byrne, N. A. Soars, M. A. Ho et al., “Fertilization in a suite of coastal marine invertebrates from SE Australia is robust to near-future ocean warming and acidification,” Marine Biology, vol. 157, no. 9, pp. 2061–2069, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  64. J. E. N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T. M. Lenton et al., “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2,” Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 58, no. 10, pp. 1428–1436, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  65. G. P. Griffith, E. A. Fulton, R. Gorton, and A. J. Richardson, “Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with whole-ecosystem models,” Conservation Biology, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 1145–1152, 2012.
  66. P. W. Glynn and L. D'Croz, “Experimental evidence for high temperature stress as the cause of El Niño-coincident coral mortality,” Coral Reefs, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 181–191, 1990. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  67. C. Eakin, J. M. Lough, and S. F. Heron, “Climate variability and change: monitoring data and evidence for increased coral bleaching stress,” in Coral Bleaching: Patterns and Processes, Causes and Consequences, M. van Oppen and J. Lough, Eds., vol. 205 of Ecological Studies, pp. 1–67, Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, 2009.
  68. J. A. Kleypas, J. W. McManu, and L. A. B. Mene, “Environmental limits to coral reef development: where do we draw the line?” American Zoologist, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 146–159, 1999. View at Scopus
  69. S. J. Dalton and A. G. Carroll, “Monitoring coral health to determine coral bleaching response at high latitude eastern Australian Reefs: an applied model for a changing climate,” Diversity, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 592–610, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  70. A. P. Negri and M. O. Hoogenboom, “Water contamination reduces the tolerance of coral larvae to thermal stress,” PLoS One, vol. 6, no. 5, Article ID e19703, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  71. A. P. Negri, F. Flores, T. Röthig, and S. Uthicke, “Herbicides increase the vulnerability of corals to rising sea surface temperature,” Limnology and Oceanography, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 471–485, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  72. S. Uthicke, N. Vogel, J. Doyle, C. Schmidt, and C. Humphrey, “Interactive effects of climate change and eutrophication on the dinoflagellate-bearing benthic foraminifer Marginopora vertebralis,” Coral Reefs, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 401–414, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  73. S. A. Wooldridge and T. J. Done, “Improved water quality can ameliorate effects of climate change on corals,” Ecological Applications, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 1492–1499, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  74. J. Wiedenmann, S. D'Angelo, E. G. Smith et al., “Nutrient enrichment can increase the susceptibility of reef corals to bleaching,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 3, pp. 160–164, 2012.
  75. T. P. Hughes, N. A. J. Graham, J. B. C. Jackson, P. J. Mumby, and R. S. Steneck, “Rising to the challenge of sustaining coral reef resilience,” Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 25, no. 11, pp. 633–642, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  76. J. F. Bruno, H. Sweatman, W. F. Precht, E. R. Selig, and V. G. W. Schutte, “Assessing evidence of phase shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on coral reefs,” Ecology, vol. 90, no. 6, pp. 1478–1484, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  77. M. Adjeroud, F. Michonneau, P. J. Edmunds et al., “Recurrent disturbances, recovery trajectories, and resilience of coral assemblages on a South Central Pacific reef,” Coral Reefs, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 775–780, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  78. T. M. Work, G. S. Aeby, and J. E. Maragos, “Phase shift from a coral to a corallimorph-dominated reef associated with a shipwreck on Palmyra Atoll,” PLoS One, vol. 3, no. 8, Article ID e2989, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  79. S. R. Dudgeon, R. B. Aronson, J. F. Bruno, and W. F. Precht, “Phase shifts and stable states on coral reefs,” Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol. 413, pp. 201–216, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  80. P. S. Petraitis and C. Hoffman, “Multiple stable states and relationship between thresholds in processes and states,” Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol. 413, pp. 189–200, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  81. J. L. Davidson, I. E. van Putten, P. Leith, M. Nursey-Bray, E. M. Madin, and N. J. Holbrook, “Toward operationalizing resilience concepts in Australian marine sectors coping with climate change,” Ecology & Society, vol. 18, no. 3, article 4, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  82. N. A. J. Graham, T. D. Ainsworth, A. H. Baird et al., “From microbes to people: tractable benefits of no-take areas for coral reefs,” Oceanography and Marine Biology, vol. 49, pp. 105–135, 2011. View at Scopus
  83. S. D. Ling and C. R. Johnson, “Marine reserves reduce risk of climate-driven phase shift by reinstating size- and habitat-specific trophic interactions,” Ecological Applications, vol. 22, pp. 1232–1245, 2012.
  84. L. J. McCook, G. R. Almany, M. L. Berumen et al., “Management under uncertainty: guide-lines for incorporating connectivity into the protection of coral reefs,” Coral Reefs, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 353–366, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  85. E. Sanford and M. W. Kelly, “Local adaptation in marine invertebrates,” Annual Review of Marine Science, vol. 3, pp. 509–535, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  86. Australian Department of the Environment, “Commonwealth Marine Reserves,” 2013, http://www.environment.gov.au/marinereserves/.
  87. R. Pressey, “Australia's new marine protected areas: why they won't work,” The Conversation, January 2013.
  88. P. L. Munday, J. M. Leis, J. M. Lough et al., “Climate change and coral reef connectivity,” Coral Reefs, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 379–395, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  89. A. Phillips, “Protected areas, and IUCN's world commission on protected areas (WCPA)—how can they help in the conservation of ferns?” Fern Gazette, vol. 16, no. 6-8, pp. 278–283, 2002. View at Scopus
  90. M. L. Baskett, R. M. Nisbet, C. V. Kappel, P. J. Mumby, and S. D. Gaines, “Conservation management approaches to protecting the capacity for corals to respond to climate change: a theoretical comparison,” Global Change Biology, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 1229–1246, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  91. J. R. Guest, A. H. Baird, J. A. Maynard et al., “Contrasting patterns of coral bleaching susceptibility in 2010 suggest an adaptive response to thermal stress,” PLoS One, vol. 7, no. 3, Article ID e33353, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  92. T. E. Reed, D. E. Schindler, and R. S. Waples, “Interacting effects of phenotypic plasticity and evolution on population persistence in a changing climate,” Conservation Biology, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 56–63, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  93. S. K. Wilson, N. A. J. Graham, R. Fisher et al., “Effect of macroalgal expansion and marine protected areas on coral recovery following a climatic disturbance,” Conservation Biology, vol. 26, pp. 995–1004, 2012.
  94. M. R. Myers and R. F. Ambrose, “Differences in benthic cover inside and outside marine protected areas on the Great Barrier Reef: influence of protection or disturbance history?” Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, vol. 19, no. 7, pp. 736–747, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  95. E. R. Selig and J. F. Bruno, “A global analysis of the effectiveness of marine protected areas in preventing coral loss,” PLoS One, vol. 5, no. 2, Article ID e9278, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  96. H. Sweatman, “No-take reserves protect coral reefs from predatory starfish,” Current Biology, vol. 18, no. 14, pp. R598–R599, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  97. E. T. Game, E. McDonald-Madden, M. L. Puotinen, and H. P. Possingham, “Should we protect the strong or the weak? Risk, resilience, and the selection of marine protected areas,” Conservation Biology, vol. 22, no. 6, pp. 1619–1629, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  98. E. A. Fulton, J. S. Link, I. C. Kaplan et al., “Lessons in modelling and management of marine ecosystems: the Atlantis experience,” Fish and Fisheries, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 171–188, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  99. E. A. Fulton, A. D. M. Smith, and A. E. Punt, “Which ecological indicators can robustly detect effects of fishing?” ICES Journal of Marine Science, vol. 62, no. 3, pp. 540–551, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  100. J. E. Johnson, J. A. Maynard, M. J. Devlin et al., “Resilience of Great Barrier Reef marine ecosystems and drivers of change,” in Synthesis of Evidence to Support the Reef Water Quality Scientific Consensus Statement, chapter 2, Department of the Premier and Cabinet, Queensland Government, Brisbane, Australia, 2013.
  101. E. T. Game, M. E. Watts, S. Wooldridge, and H. P. Possingham, “Planning for persistence in marine reserves: a question of catastrophic importance,” Ecological Applications, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 670–680, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  102. C. Wilkinson and J. Brodie, “Catchment Management and Coral Reef Conservation: a practical guide for coastal resource managers to reduce damage from catchment areas,” Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Townsville, Australia, 2011.
  103. J. E. Brodie, J. Waterhouse, B. Schaffelke et al., “Scientific Consensus Statement: land use impacts on Great Barrier Reef water quality and ecosystem condition,” Reef Water Quality Protection Plan, State of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, 2013.
  104. A. S. Brierley and M. J. Kingsford, “Impacts of climate change on marine organisms and ecosystems,” Current Biology, vol. 19, no. 14, pp. R602–R614, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  105. G.-R. Walther, “Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, vol. 365, no. 1549, pp. 2019–2024, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  106. K. J. Willis, K. D. Bennett, S. A. Bhagwat, and H. J. B. Birks, “Perspective 4°C and beyond: what did this mean for biodiversity in the past?” Systematics and Biodiversity, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 3–9, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  107. K. Brander, “Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries,” Marine Biological Association India, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 1–13, 2009.
  108. R. Q. Grafton, “Adaptation to climate change in marine capture fisheries,” Marine Policy, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 606–615, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  109. O. Hoegh-Guldberg, H. Hoegh-Guldberg, J. E. N. Veron et al., “The coral triangle and climate change: ecosystems, people and societies at risk,” Coral Triangle Initiative, 2009.
  110. G. H. Rau, E. L. McLeod, and O. Hoegh-Guldberg, “The need for new ocean conservation strategies in a high-carbon dioxide world,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 2, pp. 720–724, 2012.
  111. K. R. N. Anthony, J. A. Maynard, G. Diaz-Pulido et al., “Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience,” Global Change Biology, vol. 17, no. 5, pp. 1798–1808, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  112. T. Iwamura, K. A. Wilson, O. Venter, and H. P. Possingham, “A climatic stability approach to prioritizing global conservation investments,” PLoS One, vol. 5, no. 11, Article ID e15103, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  113. D. O. Obura and G. Grimsditch, “Coral reefs, climate change and resilience: an agenda for action,” IUCN Working Paper Series no. 5, IUCN World Conservation Congress, Barcelona, Spain, 2009.
  114. J. A. Maynard, P. A. Marshall, J. E. Johnson, and S. Harman, “Building resilience into practical conservation: identifying local management responses to global climate change in the southern Great Barrier Reef,” Coral Reefs, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 381–391, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  115. C. M. Spillman, “Operational real-time seasonal forecasts for coral reef management,” Journal of Operational Oceanography, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 13–22, 2011. View at Scopus
  116. NOAA, “Coral Reef Watch,” 2013, http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php.
  117. CSIRO, “ReefTemp,” 2013, http://www.cmar.csiro.au/remotesensing/reeftemp/web/index.htm.
  118. J. A. Maynard, J. E. Johnson, P. A. Marshall et al., “A strategic framework for responding to coral bleaching events in a changing climate,” Environmental Management, vol. 44, pp. 1–11, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  119. W. W. L. Cheung, V. W. Y. Lam, J. L. Sarmiento, K. Kearney, R. Watson, and D. Pauly, “Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios,” Fish and Fisheries, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 235–251, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  120. C. J. Brown, E. A. Fulton, A. J. Hobday et al., “Effects of climate-driven primary production change on marine food webs: implications for fisheries and conservation,” Global Change Biology, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 1194–1212, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  121. M. Casini, J. Hjelm, J.-C. Molinero et al., “Trophic cascades promote threshold-like shifts in pelagic marine ecosystems,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 106, no. 1, pp. 197–202, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  122. R. C. Carpenter, “Mass mortality of a Caribbean sea urchin: Immediate effects on community metabolism and other herbivores,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, vol. 85, pp. 511–514, 1988.
  123. B. Planque, J.-M. Fromentin, P. Cury et al., “How does fishing alter marine populations and ecosystems sensitivity to climate?” Journal of Marine Systems, vol. 79, no. 3-4, pp. 403–417, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  124. A. J. Hobday, “Sliding baselines and shuffling species: implications of climate change for marine conservation,” Marine Ecology, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 392–403, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  125. B. Lausche, D. Farrier, J. Verschuuren et al., “The legal aspects of connectivity conservation,” A Concept Paper, IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 2013.
  126. E. McLeod, R. Salm, A. Green, and J. Almany, “Designing marine protected area networks to address the impacts of climate change,” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, vol. 7, no. 7, pp. 362–370, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  127. L. Hannah, G. Midgley, G. Hughes, and B. Bomhard, “The view from the cape: extinction risk, protected areas, and climate change,” BioScience, vol. 55, no. 3, pp. 231–242, 2005. View at Scopus
  128. R. I. Mcdonald, P. Kareiva, and R. T. T. Forman, “The implications of current and future urbanization for global protected areas and biodiversity conservation,” Biological Conservation, vol. 141, no. 6, pp. 1695–1703, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  129. E. T. Game, M. Bode, E. McDonald-Madden, H. S. Grantham, and H. P. Possingham, “Dynamic marine protected areas can improve the resilience of coral reef systems,” Ecology Letters, vol. 12, no. 12, pp. 1336–1345, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  130. R. Trebilco, B. S. Halpern, J. M. Flemming, C. Field, W. Blanchard, and B. Worm, “Mapping species richness and human impact drivers to inform global pelagic conservation prioritisation,” Biological Conservation, vol. 144, no. 5, pp. 1758–1766, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  131. T. L. Root and S. H. Schneider, “Conservation and climate change: the challenges ahead,” Conservation Biology, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 706–708, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  132. Global Environment Facility, 2013, http://www.thegef.org/gef/node/10019.
  133. J. J. Lawler, “Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol. 1162, pp. 79–98, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus