- About this Journal ·
- Abstracting and Indexing ·
- Aims and Scope ·
- Annual Issues ·
- Article Processing Charges ·
- Articles in Press ·
- Author Guidelines ·
- Bibliographic Information ·
- Citations to this Journal ·
- Contact Information ·
- Editorial Board ·
- Editorial Workflow ·
- Free eTOC Alerts ·
- Publication Ethics ·
- Reviewers Acknowledgment ·
- Submit a Manuscript ·
- Subscription Information ·
- Table of Contents
International Journal of Geophysics
Volume 2011 (2011), Article ID 259529, 14 pages
Observed Change in Sahel Rainfall, Circulations, African Easterly Waves, and Atlantic Hurricanes Since 1979
1Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
2Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
Received 1 April 2011; Revised 1 August 2011; Accepted 26 August 2011
Academic Editor: Amadou Gaye
Copyright © 2011 Shih-Yu Wang and Robert R. Gillies. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- L. Olsson, L. Eklundh, and J. Ardö, “A recent greening of the Sahel—trends, patterns and potential causes,” Journal of Arid Environments, vol. 63, no. 3, pp. 556–566, 2005.
- S. M. Herrmann, A. Anyamba, and C. J. Tucker, “Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 394–404, 2005.
- A. H. Fink, J. M. Schrage, and S. Kotthaus, “On the potential causes of the nonstationary correlations between West African precipitation and atlantic hurricane activity,” Journal of Climate, vol. 23, no. 20, pp. 5437–5456, 2010.
- A. Dai, P. J. Lamb, K. E. Trenberth, M. Hulme, P. D. Jones, and P. Xie, “The recent Sahel drought is real,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 24, no. 11, pp. 1323–1331, 2004.
- S. E. Nicholson and X. Yin, “Rainfall conditions in equatorial East Africa during the nineteenth century as inferred from the record of Lake Victoria,” Climatic Change, vol. 48, no. 2-3, pp. 387–398, 2001.
- J. Lu and T. L. Delworth, “Oceanic forcing of the late 20th century Sahel drought,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 32, no. 22, Article ID L22706, pp. 1–5, 2005.
- S. M. Hagos and K. H. Cook, “Ocean warming and late-twentieth-century Sahel drought and recovery,” Journal of Climate, vol. 21, no. 15, pp. 3797–3814, 2008.
- M. Hoerling, J. Hurrell, J. Eischeid, and A. Phillips, “Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change,” Journal of Climate, vol. 19, no. 16, pp. 3989–4008, 2006.
- K. H. Cook, “Climate science: the mysteries of Sahel droughts,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 1, no. 10, pp. 647–648, 2008.
- M. Latif, “Dynamics of decadal climate variability and implications for its prediction,” in Proceedings of the Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (OceanObs '09), J. Hall, D. E. Harrison, and D. Stammer, Eds., 2010.
- A. Giannini, R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, “Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales,” Science, vol. 302, no. 5647, pp. 1027–1030, 2003.
- D. S. Schimel, J. I. House, K. A. Hibbard et al., “Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems,” Nature, vol. 414, no. 6860, pp. 169–172, 2001.
- C. Caminade and L. Terray, “Twentieth century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM, and future changes,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 75–94, 2010.
- J. Bader and M. Latif, “North Atlantic oscillation response to anomalous Indian ocean SST in a coupled GCM,” Journal of Climate, vol. 18, no. 24, pp. 5382–5389, 2005.
- J. R. Knight, R. J. Allan, C. K. Folland, M. Vellinga, and M. E. Mann, “A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 32, no. 20, Article ID L20708, pp. 1–4, 2005.
- B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, S. Janicot, E. Mohino et al., “Interannual and decadal SST-forced responses of the West African monsoon,” Atmospheric Science Letters, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 67–74, 2011.
- J. R. Knight, C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife, “Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 33, no. 17, Article ID L17706, 2006.
- R. W. Burpee, “The origin and structure of easterly waves in the lower troposphere of North Africa,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 77–90, 1972.
- C. D. Thorncroft and B. J. Hoskins, “An idealized study of African easterly waves. I: a linear view,” Quarterly Journal—Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 120, no. 518, pp. 953–982, 1994.
- C. D. Thorncroft and B. J. Hoskins, “An idealized study of African easterly waves. II: a nonlinear view,” Quartlery Journal—Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 120, no. 518, pp. 983–1015, 1994.
- V. Mathon, H. Laurent, and T. Lebel, “Mesoscale convective system rainfall in the Sahel,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 41, no. 11, pp. 1081–1092, 2002.
- R. J. Reed, E. Klinker, and A. Hollingsworth, “The structure and characteristics of African easterly wave disturbances as determined from the ECMWF operational analysis/forecast system,” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol. 38, no. 1-2, pp. 22–33, 1988.
- T. C. Chen and S.-Y. Wang, “Interannual variation of the Sahel rainfall,” in Proceedings of the European Geosciences Union Symposium of Precipitation Science, vol. 9, Vienna, Austria, 2007.
- W. M. Gray and C. W. Landsea, “African rainfall as a precursor of hurricane-related destruction on the US east coast,” Bulletin—American Meteorological Society, vol. 73, no. 9, pp. 1352–1364, 1992.
- C. Thorncroft and K. Hodges, “African easterly wave variability and its relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity,” Journal of Climate, vol. 14, no. 6, pp. 1166–1179, 2001.
- C. W. Landsea, “A climatology of intense (or major) Atlantic hurricanes,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 121, no. 6, pp. 1703–1713, 1993.
- C. W. Landsea and W. M. Gray, “The strong association between western sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense atlantic hurricanes,” Journal of Climate, vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 435–453, 1992.
- T. C. Chen, S. Y. Wang, and A. J. Clark, “North Atlantic hurricanes contributed by African esterly waves north and south of the African easterly jet,” Journal of Climate, vol. 21, no. 24, pp. 6767–6776, 2008.
- S. B. Hopsch, C. D. Thorncroft, K. Hodges, and A. Aiyyer, “West African storm tracks and their relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclones,” Journal of Climate, vol. 20, no. 11, pp. 2468–2483, 2007.
- I. M. Held, T. L. Delworth, J. Lu, K. L. Findell, and T. R. Knutson, “Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 102, no. 50, pp. 17891–17896, 2005.
- K. H. Cook and E. K. Vizy, “Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations,” Journal of Climate, vol. 19, no. 15, pp. 3681–3703, 2006.
- J. H. Christensen, T. R. Carter, M. Rummukainen, and G. Amanatidis, “Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project,” Climatic Change, vol. 81, no. 1, pp. 1–6, 2007.
- K. Emanuel, “Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years,” Nature, vol. 436, no. 7051, pp. 686–688, 2005.
- K. Emanuel, “Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation,” Journal of Climate, vol. 20, no. 22, pp. 5497–5509, 2007.
- P. Xie and P. A. Arkin, “Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 78, no. 11, pp. 2539–2558, 1997.
- R. F. Adler, G. J. Huffman, A. Chang et al., “The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present),” Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 4, no. 6, pp. 1147–1167, 2003.
- D. R. Legates and C. J. Willmott, “Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge-corrected, global precipitation,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 111–127, 1990.
- T. M. Smith and R. W. Reynolds, “Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854–1997),” Journal of Climate, vol. 16, no. 10, pp. 1495–1510, 2003.
- P. Brohan, J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones, “Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850,” Journal of Geophysical Research D, vol. 111, no. 12, Article ID D12106, 2006.
- E. Kalnay, M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler et al., “The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 77, no. 3, pp. 437–471, 1996.
- M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen et al., “NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2),” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 83, no. 11, pp. 1631–1559, 2002.
- S. M. Uppala, P. W. Kållberg, A. J. Simmons et al., “The ERA-40 re-analysis,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 131, no. 612, pp. 2961–3012, 2005.
- A. S. Simmons, D. D. Uppala, and S. Kobayashi, “ERA-interim: new ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards,” CMWF Newsl, vol. 110, pp. 29–35, 2007.
- M. M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, R. Gelaro, et al., “MERRA: NASA’s modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications,” Journal of Climate, vol. 24, no. 14, pp. 3624–3648, 2011.
- C. W. Landsea, C. Anderson, G. Clark, et al., “The Atlantic hurricane database re-analysis project: documentation for the 1851–1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database,” Hurricanes and Typhoons, pp. 177–221, 2004.
- P. A. Arkin and P. E. Ardanuy, “Estimating climatic-scale precipitation from space: a review,” Journal of Climate, vol. 2, no. 11, pp. 1229–1238, 1989.
- B. Fontaine, S. Janicot, and V. Moron, “Rainfall anomaly patterns and wind field signals over West Africa in August (1958–1989),” Journal of Climate, vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 1503–1510, 1995.
- J. P. Grist and E. Nicholson, “A study of the dynamic factors influencing the rainfall variability in the West African Sahel,” Journal of Climate, vol. 14, no. 7, pp. 1337–1359, 2001.
- P. Camberlin, S. Janicot, and I. Poccard, “Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: atlantic vs. ENSO,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 21, no. 8, pp. 973–1005, 2001.
- Chidong Zhang, “Large-scale variability of atmospheric deep convection in relation to sea surface temperature in the tropics,” Journal of Climate, vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 1898–1913, 1993.
- J. P. Grist, S. E. Nicholson, and A. I. Barcilon, “Easterly waves over Africa. Part II: observed and modeled contrasts between wet and dry years,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 130, no. 2, pp. 212–225, 2002.
- C. D. Thorncroft and D. P. Rowell, “Interannual variability of African wave activity in a general circulation model,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 18, no. 12, pp. 1305–1323, 1998.
- J. G. Charney and M. E. Stern, “On the stability of internal baroclinic jets in a rotating atmosphere,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 159–172, 1962.
- T. C. Chen, “Characteristics of African easterly waves depicted by ECMWF reanalyses for 1991–2000,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 134, no. 12, pp. 3539–3566, 2006.
- Chia-Bo Chang, “Impact of desert environment on the genesis of African wave disturbances,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 50, no. 14, pp. 2137–2145, 1993.
- R. J. Cornforth, B. J. Hoskins, and C. D. Thorncroft, “The impact of moist processes on the African Easterly Jet-African Easterly Wave system,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 135, no. 641, pp. 894–913, 2009.
- T. Lebel and A. Ali, “Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990–2007),” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 375, no. 1-2, pp. 52–64, 2009.
- S. E. Nicholson and I. M. Palao, “A re-evaluation of rainfall variability in the Sahel. Part I. Characteristics of rainfall fluctuations,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 371–389, 1993.
- E. Mohino, S. Janicot, and J. Bader, “Sahel rainfall and decadal to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability,” Climate Dynamics, pp. 1–22, 2010.
- I. Pytharoulis and C. Thorncroft, “The low-level structure of African easterly waves in 1995,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 127, no. 10, pp. 2266–2280, 1999.
- Tsing-Chang Chen, “Global water vapor flux and maintenance during FGGE,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 113, no. 10, pp. 1801–1819, 1985.
- S. E. Nicholson, “A revised picture of the structure of the “monsoon” and land ITCZ over West Africa,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 32, no. 7-8, pp. 1155–1171, 2009.