Evaluating the RELM Test Results

Table 2

Cell scores 𝜆_𝑓𝑖 of an earthquake with 𝑀≥4.95 for the 22 cells in which earthquakes occurred during the test period. The association of cell IDs (A–V) with the earthquake IDs (1–31) from Table 1 is given. Five submitted forecasts are given: (1) Bird and Liu (B and L), (2) Ebel et al. (Ebel), (3) Helmstetter et al. (Helm.), (4) Holliday et al. (Holl.), and (5) Wiemer and Schorlemmer (W and S). The highest (best) scores are in bold.

Cell ID	EQ ID	B and L	Ebel	Helm.	Holl.	W and S
(A)	1,7,8,16,24	1.99𝑒−2	2.20𝑒−2	1.17𝑒−1	3.32𝑒−2	𝟏.𝟐𝟒𝐞−𝟏
(B)	2	1.41𝑒−2	3.40𝑒−2	𝟕.𝟐𝟎𝐞−𝟐	3.32𝑒−2	4.99𝑒−2
(C)	3	7.40𝑒−3	6.59𝑒−3	7.41𝑒−3	𝟑.𝟑𝟐𝐞−𝟐	7.91𝑒−3
(D)	4	3.54𝑒−2	3.29𝑒−2	𝟔.𝟗𝟕𝐞−𝟐	3.32𝑒−2	3.59𝑒−2
(E)	5	𝟕.𝟐𝟑𝐞−𝟑	1.10𝑒−3	2.29𝑒−3	9.72𝑒−5	1.58𝑒−7
(F)	6	9.37𝑒−3	2.85𝑒−2	3.07𝑒−2	3.32𝑒−2	𝟒.𝟓𝟓𝐞−𝟐
(G)	9,10	9.11𝑒−3	5.49𝑒−3	2.55𝑒−2	𝟑.𝟑𝟐𝐞−𝟐	2.38𝑒−2
(H)	11	3.42𝑒−4	𝟓.𝟒𝟗𝐞−𝟑	9.15𝑒−4	1.62𝑒−4	2.06𝑒−4
(I)	12	2.14𝑒−3	1.10𝑒−3	3.65𝑒−3	2.05𝑒−4	𝟗.𝟖𝟗𝐞−𝟑
(J)	13	1.68𝑒−3	8.78𝑒−3	1.11𝑒−2	𝟑.𝟑𝟐𝐞−𝟐	1.13𝑒−2
(K)	14	3.12𝑒−2	2.20𝑒−2	3.30𝑒−2	3.32𝑒−2	𝟓.𝟗𝟎𝐞−𝟐
(L)	15	2.07𝑒−3	5.49𝑒−3	𝟔.𝟗𝟑𝐞−𝟑	3.32𝑒−3	2.64𝑒−3
(M)	17,18	1.74𝑒−3	2.20𝑒−3	5.78𝑒−3	𝟑.𝟑𝟐𝐞−𝟐	5.38𝑒−4
(N)	19	𝟓.𝟖𝟑𝐞−𝟐	6.59𝑒−3	1.49𝑒−2	3.32𝑒−2	7.44𝑒−3
(O)	20	1.25𝑒−2	1.43𝑒−2	9.45𝑒−3	𝟑.𝟑𝟐𝐞−𝟐	1.62𝑒−2
(P)	21	6.48𝑒−3	3.29𝑒−2	2.71𝑒−2	𝟑.𝟑𝟐𝐞−𝟐	7.46𝑒−3
(Q)	22,25,28	2.88𝑒−2	2.20𝑒−2	2.84𝑒−2	3.32𝑒−2	𝟓.𝟐𝟑𝐞−𝟐
(R)	23,26	𝟑.𝟎𝟔𝐞−𝟐	1.54𝑒−2	1.43𝑒−2	1.73𝑒−4	1.58𝑒−2
(S)	27	2.13𝑒−2	5.49𝑒−3	1.26𝑒−2	𝟑.𝟑𝟐𝐞−𝟐	1.19𝑒−2
(T)	29	1.83𝑒−2	1.32𝑒−2	2.43𝑒−2	3.32𝑒−2	𝟒.𝟗𝟗𝐞−𝟐
(U)	30	1.26𝑒−2	3.07𝑒−2	𝟏.𝟎𝟑𝐞−𝟏	3.32𝑒−3	5.16𝑒−2
(V)	31	6.76𝑒−3	1.54𝑒−2	5.55𝑒−3	𝟑.𝟑𝟐𝐞−𝟐	2.64𝑒−3