Forecast Accuracy and Uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics State and Territory Population Projections

Table 3

Percentage of ABS state and territory projections of total population, which were more accurate than those created by linear extrapolation, by projection duration.

Projection duration (years)	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas	NT	ACT
1	88	89	71	58	59	71	58	82
2	81	94	59	42	59	71	68	76
3	63	83	53	37	53	71	68	76
4	63	78	53	42	41	76	74	76
5	44	78	53	37	41	76	74	76
6	33	65	44	33	38	88	72	63
7	33	59	44	33	56	69	72	56
8	36	50	53	35	53	73	76	60
9	36	44	47	29	60	80	76	67
10	54	47	43	31	64	79	69	57
11	62	47	43	31	64	71	75	57
12	62	47	43	19	64	71	63	57
13	50	33	46	23	62	69	60	62
14	58	33	46	31	54	54	60	62
15	73	36	50	50	50	58	64	67

Source: author’s calculations using ABS projections and ERP data.
Note: numbers in bold illustrate circumstances where linear extrapolations would have provided more accurate projections of total population for the majority of projection rounds.