Recursive estimation of the claim rates and sizes in an insurance model

Abstract

It is a common fact that for most classes of general insurance, many possible sources of heterogeneity of risk exist. Premium rates based on information from a heterogeneous portfolio might be quite inadequate. One way of reducing this danger is by grouping policies according to the different levels of the various risk factors involved. Using measure change techniques, we derive recursive filters and predictors for the claim rates and claim sizes for the different groups.