Risk of Infectious Disease Outbreaks by Imported Cases with Application to the European Football Championship 2012

Figure 2

The probability of a major epidemic as the function of the effective reproduction number in France in the Poissonian case (a) and in the negative binomial case (b). The parameters are 𝜆=0.04, 𝛽=0.27. The solid curve is for 𝑇=21, the dashed is for 𝑇=14, and the dot-dashed is for 𝑇=10.

(a)

(b)