| | Variable | Distribution (parameters) | Mean | 95% C.I. based on distribution and parameters |
| | Normal sinus rhythm (NSR) variables | | Probability of remaining in normal sinus rhythm at 1 year for AAD | Beta (, ) | 0.26 | (0.17, 0.34) | | RR of NSR at 1 year with ablation | log normal (, s.e. = 0.18)) | 2.93 | (2.09, 4.11) | | Probability (annual) of AF recurrence after NSR with AAD | Beta (, ) | 0.036 | (0.00324, 0.00904) | | Probability (annual) of AF recurrence after NSR with ablation | Beta (, ) | 0.221 | (0.023, 0.053) | | Disutility due to AF | Beta (4.6, 95.4) | 0.046 | (0.014, 0.095) |
| | Treatment cost variables | | Annual cost of Amiodarone | Fixed | $433 | | | Cost of AF ablation hospitalization | Gamma (25, 282.24) | $7,056 | ($4566, $10,709) | | AF ablation physician fees | Fixed | $2534 | | | Number of AF ablation procedures | Fixed | 1.27 | | | Follow-up cost 1st year after ablation | Fixed | $666 | |
| | Perioperative ablation complication variables | | Probability of stroke as complication of AF ablation | Beta (, ) | 0.003 | (0.0017, 0.0046) | | Probability of TIA as complication of AF ablation | Beta (, ) | 0.002 | (0.0012, 0.0038) | | Probability of cardiac tamponade as complication of AF ablation | Beta (, ) | 0.008 | (0.0057, 0.0010) | | Probability of PV stenosis as complication of AF ablation | Beta (, ) | 0.016 | (0.0017, 0.0049) | | Cost of stroke as complication from AF ablation | Gamma (, ) | $14872 | ($9624, $21243) | | Cost of TIA as complication from AF ablation | Gamma (, ) | $4296 | ($2,781, $6137) | | Cost of cardiac tamponade as complication from AF ablation | Gamma (, ) | $5842 | ($3781, $8345) | | Cost of PV stenosis as complication from AF ablation | Gamma (, ) | $8487 | ($5492, $12123) |
| | Pulmonary toxicity variables | | Annual probability of pulmonary toxicity | Beta (6.14, 731.86) | 0.008 | (0.003, 0.016) | | Probability of death from pulmonary toxicity | Beta (3, 30) | 0.091 | (0.019, 0.208) | | Probability that pulmonary toxicity is irreversible | Beta (25, 75) | 0.25 | (0.171, 0.338 | | Cost of acute pulmonary toxicity | Gamma (25, 897.36) | $22434 | ($14518, $32044) | | Annual cost of irreversible pulmonary toxicity | Gamma (, ) | $3799 | ($2459, $5427) | | Utility weight for irreversible pulmonary toxicity | Beta (60, 40) | 0.6 | (0.503, 0.693) |
| | Ischemic stroke variables | | Annual probability of stroke (Chads2 = 2) | Beta (, ) | 0.04 | (0.031, 0.051) | | Increase in risk of stroke in the presence of AF | log normal ( s.e. = 0.18)) | 1.6 | (1.11, 2.30) | | First year cost of ischemic stroke | Gamma (, ) | $58159 | ($37638, $83076) | | Subsequent years of ischemic stroke | Gamma (, ) | $6801 | ($4401, $9715) | | Utility weight for ischemic stroke | Beta (91.19, 108.80) | 0.46 | (0.39, 0.53) |
| | Anticoagulation variables | | Proportion of patients on warfarin | Beta (442.2, 562.8) | 0.44 | (0.408, 0.471) | | Annual cost of warfarin treatment and monitoring | Fixed | $463 | | | Annual probability of major bleed while being on placebo | Beta (15, 2579.6) | 0.0058 | (0.00324, 0.00904) | | Relative risk of major bleed warfarin relative to placebo | log normal ( s.e. = 0.306)) | 0.45 | (0.25, 0.82) | | Proportion of major bleeds that are ICH | Beta (966.96, 1942.04) | 0.33 | (0.315, 0.350) | | First year cost of heamorrhagic stroke | Gamma (, ) | $61413 | ($39743, $87723) | | Cost for subsequent years of hemorrhagic stroke | Gamma (, ) | $5255 | ($3401, $7507) | | Utility weight for hemorrhagic stroke | Beta (55.38, 144.62) | 0.28 | (0.22, 0.34) |
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