Table 3: Trends in the determinants of malaria incidence and transmission in Canada.

Driving factors Potential effect on determinants of malaria transmission Impact on malaria risk in Canada Impact on malaria transmission parameters (Figure 4)

Climate changeImproved mosquito habitat in Canada, increased vector populationsIncreased probability of local transmission ma
g ( )
Extension of the annual period available for parasite replication in mosquitoes in Canada Increased probability of local transmission ma
g ( )
Changes in the distribution and/or incidence in countries outside of Canada to/from which Canadians travelImpact on the number of imported cases or b
Probability of local transmission uncertain or c

Increasing immigrationIncreased introduction of infected individualsIncreased number of imported cases b
Increased probability of local transmission c

Increasing international travelIncreased introduction of infected individualsIncreased number of imported cases b
Increased probability of local transmission c

Drug resistanceDecreased efficacy of prophylaxisIncreased incidence and mortality 1/r

Delayed diagnosisIncreased gametocyte incidenceIncreased probability of local transmission 1/r