238743.fig.002a
(a)
238743.fig.002b
(b)
238743.fig.002c
(c)
238743.fig.002d
(d)
Figure 2: Contact heterogeneity determines the amount of time over which the skyride estimated from the genealogy is informative of the skyride predicted by prevalence and incidence. Contact heterogeneity also affects the relationship between the skyride and prevalence trajectories. The light-blue ribbons are the middle 95% of the posterior density of the skyride reconstruction. The small bars on the -axis represent the times of coalescent events in the sampled genealogy. Labels above the Panels indicate the approximate degree distribution of the contact networks. The variance of the degree distributions increases from (a) to (d). Parameters: contact-network size = 10,000, degree distribution mean = 4, transmission rate = 2, recovery rate = 1, proportion of nodes sampled = 0.01.