Research Article

Epidemic Percolation Networks, Epidemic Outcomes, and Interventions

Figure 4

A comparison of the predictions from a single EPN with 50 simulations for three different epidemic processes on an Erdős-Rényi network of 50,000 nodes with average degree 5. The EPN results (large symbols) closely match the calculated predictions in the asymptotic limit. The simulated results (small symbols) compare well for size but poorly for probability. Generating an EPN is a much more efficient numerical method for estimating the probability of a major epidemic than simulation.
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