Table 9: Direct and indirect effects of sugarcane sector expansion on real per capita GDP (in $ of 2008 and as % of the average municipal per capita GDP in 2008), assuming that sugarcane expansion occurred exclusively in substitution to other crops.

Expansion of the sugarcane cultivated area (in percentage points of the municipal area)
020406080100
DirectIndirectDirectIndirectDirectIndirectDirectIndirectDirectIndirectDirectIndirect

Contemporaneous$1901.4454.732025.26−3.472149.07−61.672272.89−119.862396.70−178.062520.51−236.26
%22.5%0.6%23.9%0.0%25.4%−0.7%26.8%−1.4%28.3%−2.1%29.8%−2.8%
Years forward
 1$2997.68130.213182.5927.073367.50−76.083552.40−179.233737.31−282.383922.22−385.52
%35.4%1.5%37.6%0.3%39.8%−0.9%41.9%−2.1%44.1%−3.3%46.3%−4.6%
 2$3636.20209.263849.4270.754062.64−67.754275.87−206.254489.09−344.754702.32−483.26
%42.9%2.5%45.5%0.8%48.0%−0.8%50.5%−2.4%53.0%−4.1%55.5%−5.7%
 3$4012.74283.704237.52117.044462.30−49.634687.07−216.304911.85−382.965136.62−549.63
%47.4%3.3%50.0%1.4%52.7%−0.6%55.3%−2.6%58.0%−4.5%60.7%−6.5%
 4$4238.14350.174466.19160.874694.25−28.434922.30−217.735150.36−407.035378.41−596.33
%50.0%4.1%52.7%1.9%55.4%−0.3%58.1%−2.6%60.8%−4.8%63.5%−7.0%
 5$4375.43407.724602.90200.104830.38−7.515057.85−215.135285.33−422.755512.80−630.37
%51.7%4.8%54.3%2.4%57.0%−0.1%59.7%−2.5%62.4%−5.0%65.1%−7.4%
 6$4460.75456.634686.08234.134911.4211.635136.75−210.875362.08−433.385587.42−655.88
%52.7%5.4%55.3%2.8%58.0%0.1%60.7%−2.5%63.3%−5.1%66.0%−7.7%
 7$4514.97497.724737.70263.094960.4328.455183.16−206.185405.90−440.815628.63−675.45
%53.3%5.9%55.9%3.1%58.6%0.3%61.2%−2.4%63.8%−5.2%66.5%−8.0%
 8$4550.25531.964770.43287.434990.6242.915210.80−201.625430.99−446.145651.17−690.67
%53.7%6.3%56.3%3.4%58.9%0.5%61.5%−2.4%64.1%−5.3%66.7%−8.2%
 9$4573.78560.344791.72307.725009.6555.095227.58−197.535445.52−450.155663.45−702.78
%54.0%6.6%56.6%3.6%59.2%0.7%61.7%−2.3%64.3%−5.3%66.9%−8.3%
 10$4589.86583.784805.87324.555021.8965.315237.90−193.925453.91−453.165669.92−712.39
%54.2%6.9%56.7%3.8%59.3%0.8%61.8%−2.3%64.4%−5.4%66.9%−8.4%

Source: research results.
Effects calculated with the combination of the results shown in Tables 7 and 8.