Table 2: Probability of transitioning to an occupation that correctly matches an individual's education level (Kaplan-Meier estimator).

Transition to a matched occupation Remaining in overqualification
12 months24 months36 months48 months60 months12 months24 months36 months48 months60 months

Male 8.4%13.5%16.7%20.0%21.8%91.6%86.5%83.3%80.1%78.2%
Female 8.5%13.4%17.8%21.0%23.3%91.5%86.6%82.2%79.0%76.7%

Age: 25–3411.1%18.1%21.9%26.0%28.4%88.9%81.9%78.1%74.0%71.6%
Age: 35–448.0%12.9%17.0%20.2%22.0%92.0%87.1%83.0%79.8%78.0%
Age: 45–546.7%9.9%13.4%15.9%18.1%93.3%90.2%86.6%84.1%81.9%

Recent immigrants7.0%12.8%15.1%17.4%18.6%93.0%87.2%84.9%82.6%81.4%
Established immigrants4.5%8.7%9.8%12.8%13.4%95.5%91.4%90.2%87.2%86.7%
Nonimmigrants8.9%14.0%18.2%21.5%23.8%91.1%86.0%81.1%78.5%76.2%

Tenure: less than 1 year14.9%21.0%23.7%27.1%29.6%85.1%79.0%76.3%72.9%70.4%
Tenure: 1 to 4 years 9.6%14.8%18.7%22.1%24.5%90.4%85.2%81.3%77.9%75.5%
Tenure: 5 or more years 5.6%10.0%14.2%17.2%19.0%94.5%90.0%85.8%82.8%81.0%

Job-related training: yes10.3%16.7%22.0%26.9%29.3%89.7%83.3%78.0%73.1%70.7%
Job-related training: no6.7%10.1%12.4%13.9%15.8%93.4%89.9%87.6%86.1%84.2%

Changing industry: yes19.5%29.5%36.7%43.9%47.1%80.5%70.5%63.3%56.1%52.9%
Changing industry: no5.6%9.4%13.4%16.7%19.5%94.4%90.6%86.6%83.3%80.5%

Education: university8.5%12.9%16.5%18.9%21.1%91.5%87.1%83.6%81.2%78.9%
Education: postsecondary8.5%13.7%17.6%21.1%23.2%91.5%86.3%82.4%78.9%76.8%

Source: authors’ calculation from the SLID, panel 5, 2002–2007.