Dynamics of Single-City Influenza with Seasonal Forcing: From Regularity to Chaos
Figure 7
Weak environmental forcing. Seasonal forcing (18) combined with loss of individual immunity (Figure 4; Figure 1, day−1). The system is initially in a steady state without forcing (Figure 4(b)); forcing is applied after 1 year. The effects of seasonal forcing on the basic reproductive rate (20) are shown in parts (a)–(c) (right-hand -axis). Increases in mean annual air temperature increase the level of forcing ((18), (19), Figure 6(a)). is the mean annual value of . Parts (c) and (d) are from a single simulation and have the same level of forcing.
