Impacts of the Recent Expansion of the Sugarcane Sector on Municipal per Capita Income in São Paulo State
Table 7
Impact on real per capita GDP (in $ of 2008) of a 10 p.p. permanent increase in the share of sugarcane relative to the municipal area given over to agriculture.
Average municipal effect
Accumulated average municipal effect
Direct
Indirect
Direct
Indirect
Contemporaneous
61.91
−29.10
61.91
−29.10
Years forward
1
30.55
−22.48
92.45
−51.57
2
14.16
−17.68
106.61
−69.25
3
5.78
−14.08
112.39
−83.33
4
1.64
−11.32
114.03
−94.65
5
−0.28
−9.16
113.74
−103.81
6
−1.07
−7.44
112.67
−111.25
7
−1.30
−6.07
111.37
−117.32
8
−1.27
−4.95
110.09
−122.26
9
−1.13
−4.04
108.97
−126.31
10
−0.96
−3.31
108.01
−129.62
Source: research results. Indirect effects were divided by 15 in order to turn the results comparable at the municipal level.