How Persistent Is the Occupation-Education Mismatch in Canada?

Table 2

Probability of transitioning to an occupation that correctly matches an individual's education level (Kaplan-Meier estimator).

	Transition to a matched occupation					Remaining in overqualification
	12 months	24 months	36 months	48 months	60 months	12 months	24 months	36 months	48 months	60 months
Male	8.4%	13.5%	16.7%	20.0%	21.8%	91.6%	86.5%	83.3%	80.1%	78.2%
Female	8.5%	13.4%	17.8%	21.0%	23.3%	91.5%	86.6%	82.2%	79.0%	76.7%
Age: 25–34	11.1%	18.1%	21.9%	26.0%	28.4%	88.9%	81.9%	78.1%	74.0%	71.6%
Age: 35–44	8.0%	12.9%	17.0%	20.2%	22.0%	92.0%	87.1%	83.0%	79.8%	78.0%
Age: 45–54	6.7%	9.9%	13.4%	15.9%	18.1%	93.3%	90.2%	86.6%	84.1%	81.9%
Recent immigrants	7.0%	12.8%	15.1%	17.4%	18.6%	93.0%	87.2%	84.9%	82.6%	81.4%
Established immigrants	4.5%	8.7%	9.8%	12.8%	13.4%	95.5%	91.4%	90.2%	87.2%	86.7%
Nonimmigrants	8.9%	14.0%	18.2%	21.5%	23.8%	91.1%	86.0%	81.1%	78.5%	76.2%
Tenure: less than 1 year	14.9%	21.0%	23.7%	27.1%	29.6%	85.1%	79.0%	76.3%	72.9%	70.4%
Tenure: 1 to 4 years	9.6%	14.8%	18.7%	22.1%	24.5%	90.4%	85.2%	81.3%	77.9%	75.5%
Tenure: 5 or more years	5.6%	10.0%	14.2%	17.2%	19.0%	94.5%	90.0%	85.8%	82.8%	81.0%
Job-related training: yes	10.3%	16.7%	22.0%	26.9%	29.3%	89.7%	83.3%	78.0%	73.1%	70.7%
Job-related training: no	6.7%	10.1%	12.4%	13.9%	15.8%	93.4%	89.9%	87.6%	86.1%	84.2%
Changing industry: yes	19.5%	29.5%	36.7%	43.9%	47.1%	80.5%	70.5%	63.3%	56.1%	52.9%
Changing industry: no	5.6%	9.4%	13.4%	16.7%	19.5%	94.4%	90.6%	86.6%	83.3%	80.5%
Education: university	8.5%	12.9%	16.5%	18.9%	21.1%	91.5%	87.1%	83.6%	81.2%	78.9%
Education: postsecondary	8.5%	13.7%	17.6%	21.1%	23.2%	91.5%	86.3%	82.4%	78.9%	76.8%

Source: authors’ calculation from the SLID, panel 5, 2002–2007.