International Scholarly Research Notices

Research Article

Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Exports: Evidence from Two Small Countries

Table 2

ARDL results for the effects of ER volatility (measures 1 and 2) on exports of Croatia and Cyprus.
Country, SectorARDL order Regressor, coefficient -statistic, Wald bound test -statistic
LM test		 Confidence intervals 
for   		Dynamic
stability
Croatia—ER
volatility measure 1 		(7, 4, 6, 6) : : −10.65773* 
: −3.47714 
: −466.39183*		 5.5103* 0.66372 −0.2343*  
 
 Yes
:
:
:
: −0.725*
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
: 1.260
:
:
: 1.222
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
Cyprus—ER
volatility measure 1 		(1, 4, 6, 0) : : −0.402260* 
: 0.470177 
: 15.272268*		 9.4420* 1.4896 −0.433*  
 
[1.7265, 28.818]		 Yes
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
Croatia—ER
volatility measure 2 		(1, 2, 4, 0) : : 64.83765* 
: 2.93799* 
: 0.80778*		 168.678* 2.1006 −1.1017 [35.2047, 94.4705] 
[2.6029, 3.2731] 
[0.2792, 1.3365]		 Yes
:
:
: −1.468365*
:
:
:
:
:
: −4.255792*
: 1.802907+
: 0.801685
: −0.283179
: −0.451535
Cyprus—ER
volatility measure 2 		(1, 4, 2, 0)
: −1.131485* : −0.517631* 
: 2.01069* 
: 0.341775		 8.6375* 0.7455 −0.6401*  
[1.1367, 2.8847] 
 Yes
: −0.585692*
: 2.275066*
: 0.386714
: 0.150424
: 0.838574+
: 0.731348+
: 0.391101
: 0.524350
: 0.889837+
: −2.046932
: 1.149470
: 2.460438
: 0.352926
Notes: the asterisk and the cross denote at least 5% level of statistical significance and 10% level of statistical significance, respectively. Confidence intervals indicating statistically significant long-run coefficients are presented in bold. The plot of the inverse roots of the AR polynomials for examining the dynamic stability of the model is presented in the Appendix.