A Genetic Multimutation Model of Autism Spectrum Disorder Fits Disparate Twin Concordance Data from the USA and Canada

<div>Plots of ASD concordance probability <svg height="14.2099pt" id="M23" style="vertical-align:-4.532pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.6779 31.1179 14.2099" width="31.1179pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z" id="g113-81"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="617" vert-adv-y="617"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,6.937,3.264)"><path d="M357 391C357 416 325 451 270 451C241 451 179 431 146 400C109 365 97 334 97 307C97 248 143 213 196 180C250 146 261 123 261 101C261 75 237 40 190 40C153 40 110 72 86 109C81 116 68 119 55 112C37 102 24 87 24 66C24 30 85 -12 137 -12C229 -12 331 62 331 140C331 189 304 218 236 260C197 284 164 309 164 346C164 381 194 400 220 400C259 400 282 380 304 350C310 342 321 339 330 344C347 353 357 372 357 391Z" id="g50-116"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="381" vert-adv-y="381"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,10.55,3.264)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z" id="g50-45"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="237" vert-adv-y="237"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,12.798,3.264)"><path d="M357 391C357 416 325 451 270 451C241 451 179 431 146 400C109 365 97 334 97 307C97 248 143 213 196 180C250 146 261 123 261 101C261 75 237 40 190 40C153 40 110 72 86 109C81 116 68 119 55 112C37 102 24 87 24 66C24 30 85 -12 137 -12C229 -12 331 62 331 140C331 189 304 218 236 260C197 284 164 309 164 346C164 381 194 400 220 400C259 400 282 380 304 350C310 342 321 339 330 344C347 353 357 372 357 391Z" id="g50-116"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="381" vert-adv-y="381"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,16.944,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,21.632,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="341" vert-adv-y="341"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,26.252,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg>, discordance probability <svg height="14.2099pt" id="M24" style="vertical-align:-4.532pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.6779 32.9075 14.2099" width="32.9075pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z" id="g113-81"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="617" vert-adv-y="617"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,6.937,3.264)"><path d="M357 391C357 416 325 451 270 451C241 451 179 431 146 400C109 365 97 334 97 307C97 248 143 213 196 180C250 146 261 123 261 101C261 75 237 40 190 40C153 40 110 72 86 109C81 116 68 119 55 112C37 102 24 87 24 66C24 30 85 -12 137 -12C229 -12 331 62 331 140C331 189 304 218 236 260C197 284 164 309 164 346C164 381 194 400 220 400C259 400 282 380 304 350C310 342 321 339 330 344C347 353 357 372 357 391Z" id="g50-116"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="381" vert-adv-y="381"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,10.55,3.264)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z" id="g50-45"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="237" vert-adv-y="237"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,12.798,3.264)"><path d="M545 403C545 425 527 451 498 451C448 451 400 404 312 286L290 341C262 412 246 451 219 451C182 451 138 404 92 345L112 323C152 368 169 378 181 378C192 378 201 359 216 321L257 214C184 115 142 69 113 69C102 69 93 73 88 79S78 89 68 89C47 89 24 61 24 40C24 8 49 -12 75 -12C125 -12 175 31 271 175L312 64C330 15 357 -12 382 -12C421 -12 475 35 515 98L496 121C466 88 439 62 420 62C402 62 384 92 363 147L325 247C349 280 374 309 397 333C422 361 446 381 462 381C471 381 481 374 488 366C493 360 499 357 505 357C521 357 545 380 545 403Z" id="g50-121"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="569" vert-adv-y="569"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,18.734,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,23.422,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="341" vert-adv-y="341"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,28.042,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg>, and non-ASD probability <svg height="14.2099pt" id="M25" style="vertical-align:-4.532pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.6779 34.6971 14.2099" width="34.6971pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z" id="g113-81"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="617" vert-adv-y="617"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,6.937,3.264)"><path d="M545 403C545 425 527 451 498 451C448 451 400 404 312 286L290 341C262 412 246 451 219 451C182 451 138 404 92 345L112 323C152 368 169 378 181 378C192 378 201 359 216 321L257 214C184 115 142 69 113 69C102 69 93 73 88 79S78 89 68 89C47 89 24 61 24 40C24 8 49 -12 75 -12C125 -12 175 31 271 175L312 64C330 15 357 -12 382 -12C421 -12 475 35 515 98L496 121C466 88 439 62 420 62C402 62 384 92 363 147L325 247C349 280 374 309 397 333C422 361 446 381 462 381C471 381 481 374 488 366C493 360 499 357 505 357C521 357 545 380 545 403Z" id="g50-121"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="569" vert-adv-y="569"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,12.333,3.264)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z" id="g50-45"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="237" vert-adv-y="237"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,14.581,3.264)"><path d="M545 403C545 425 527 451 498 451C448 451 400 404 312 286L290 341C262 412 246 451 219 451C182 451 138 404 92 345L112 323C152 368 169 378 181 378C192 378 201 359 216 321L257 214C184 115 142 69 113 69C102 69 93 73 88 79S78 89 68 89C47 89 24 61 24 40C24 8 49 -12 75 -12C125 -12 175 31 271 175L312 64C330 15 357 -12 382 -12C421 -12 475 35 515 98L496 121C466 88 439 62 420 62C402 62 384 92 363 147L325 247C349 280 374 309 397 333C422 361 446 381 462 381C471 381 481 374 488 366C493 360 499 357 505 357C521 357 545 380 545 403Z" id="g50-121"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="569" vert-adv-y="569"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,20.524,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,25.211,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="341" vert-adv-y="341"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,29.832,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg> for identical twins susceptible for developing ASD using the model <svg height="13.1057pt" id="M26" style="vertical-align:-3.427799pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.6779 25.235 13.1057" width="25.235pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z" id="g113-81"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="617" vert-adv-y="617"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,6.937,3.264)"><path d="M357 391C357 416 325 451 270 451C241 451 179 431 146 400C109 365 97 334 97 307C97 248 143 213 196 180C250 146 261 123 261 101C261 75 237 40 190 40C153 40 110 72 86 109C81 116 68 119 55 112C37 102 24 87 24 66C24 30 85 -12 137 -12C229 -12 331 62 331 140C331 189 304 218 236 260C197 284 164 309 164 346C164 381 194 400 220 400C259 400 282 380 304 350C310 342 321 339 330 344C347 353 357 372 357 391Z" id="g50-116"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="381" vert-adv-y="381"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,11.062,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,15.749,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="341" vert-adv-y="341"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,20.37,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg> curve.</div>

International Scholarly Research Notices

fig3

Figure 3

Figure 3: A Genetic Multimutation Model of Autism Spectrum Disorder Fits Disparate Twin Concordance Data from the USA and Canada 