Research Article
Forecasting New Product Diffusion Using Grey Time-Delayed Verhulst Model
Table 2
Comparison of the modeling results.
| Year | Actual values |
Traditional grey Verhulst model |
Grey time-delayed Verhulst model () (improved model 1) |
grey time-delayed Verhulst model () (improved model 2) | | % | | % | % | % |
| 2003 | 22 | 19.57 | −11.02 | — | — | — | — | 2004 | 120 | 47.71 | −60.24 | 89.74 | −25.21 | — | — | 2005 | 750 | 115.12 | −84.67 | 473.87 | −36.82 | 474.88 | −36.68 | 2006 | 1180 | 271.34 | −77.01 | 1316.59 | 11.58 | 1311.33 | 11.13 | 2007 | 2120 | 607.03 | −71.37 | 2097.95 | −1.04 | 2100.21 | −0.93 |
| % | — | 60.82 | — | 18.66 | — | 16.25 | % | — | 39.18 | — | 81.34 | — | 83.75 |
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