Geometrical Variable Weights Buffer GM(1,1) Model and Its Application in Forecasting of China’s Energy Consumption

Table 1

In-sample comparisons among the GVGM, GAGM, and GM models.

Time	Actual value	GVGM(1,1)		GAGM(1,1)		GM(1,1)
		Fitting value	Relative error (%)	Fitting value	Relative error (%)	Fitting value	Relative error (%)
2002	1594.31	1841.43	15.5	2211.09	38.69	1594.31	0.00
2003	1837.92	2114.24	15.03	2450.39	33.32	1974.70	7.44
2004	2134.56	2246.20	5.23	2551.44	19.53	2135.96	0.07
2005	2359.97	2386.40	1.12	2656.67	12.57	2310.39	2.10
2006	2586.76	2535.34	1.99	2766.23	6.94	2499.06	3.39
2007	2805.08	2693.59	3.97	2880.31	2.68	2703.15	3.63
2008	2914.48	2861.71	1.81	2999.10	2.90	2923.89	0.32
2009	3066.47	3040.32	0.85	3122.79	1.84	3162.67	3.14
MRE (%)			5.69		14.81		2.51
The degree of Grey incidence		0.733		0.691		0.628