Trigonometric Regression for Analysis of Public Health Surveillance Data
Table 3
Simulation results for pertussis outbreaks assuming outbreak model.
Outbreak
Probability of detection1
Conditional expected delay2
False-positive rate3
Size ()
Duration (2)
Signature4
Time
Region
State
Region
State
Region
State
5
4
(3, 5, 5, 3): 16
Trough
0.863
0.518
1.903
1.228
0.268
0.187
5
5
(2, 4, 5, 4, 2): 17
Trough
0.758
0.429
2.097
1.237
0.249
0.181
5
6
(1, 3, 5, 5, 3, 1): 18
Trough
0.908
0.583
2.700
1.881
0.255
0.174
10
4
(5, 10, 10, 5): 30
Trough
1.000
0.999
1.371
1.790
0.259
0.187
10
5
(4, 7, 10, 7, 4): 32
Trough
1.000
0.998
1.836
2.255
0.244
0.182
10
6
(4, 7, 10, 10, 7, 4): 42
Trough
1.000
1.000
1.839
2.267
0.255
0.186
10
4
(5, 10, 10, 5): 30
Mid
1.000
0.976
1.577
1.922
0.243
0.192
10
5
(4, 7, 10, 7, 4): 32
Mid
1.000
0.939
2.039
2.391
0.252
0.184
10
6
(4, 7, 10, 10, 7, 4): 42
Mid
1.000
0.987
2.038
2.580
0.244
0.185
20
4
(10, 20, 20, 10): 60
Mid
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.172
0.257
0.186
20
5
(7, 14, 20, 14, 7): 62
Mid
1.000
1.000
1.153
1.616
0.260
0.177
20
6
(7, 14, 20, 20, 14, 7): 82
Mid
1.000
1.000
1.158
1.607
0.244
0.185
10
4
(5, 10, 10, 5): 30
Peak
0.946
0.629
1.965
1.437
0.272
0.195
10
5
(4, 7, 10, 7, 4): 32
Peak
0.881
0.524
2.342
1.504
0.261
0.194
10
6
(4, 7, 10, 10, 7, 4): 42
Peak
0.970
0.704
2.723
2.262
0.263
0.194
20
4
(10, 20, 20, 10): 60
Peak
1.000
1.000
1.276
1.582
0.268
0.197
20
5
(7, 14, 20, 14, 7): 62
Peak
1.000
0.999
1.715
2.119
0.269
0.190
20
6
(7, 14, 20, 20, 14, 7): 82
Peak
1.000
1.000
1.714
2.104
0.264
0.190
Probability of detection (POD) per “outbreak.”
2Conditional expected delay (CED) per “detected outbreaks.”
3False-positive rate in terms of false-positive signals per year.
4The signature is the number of cases in each week during the outbreak, along with the total number of cases.
