Trigonometric Regression for Analysis of Public Health Surveillance Data
Table 4
Simulation results for E. coli O157:H7 infection outbreaks assuming a negative binomial model for the entire state with overdispersion parameter , , or .
E. coli-like outbreak
Overdispersion
Overdispersion
Over dispersion
Size (b)
Duration (2c)
Signature4
Time
POD1
CED2
FPR3
POD1
CED2
FPR3
POD1
CED2
FPR3
5
4
(1, 1): 2
Trough
1.000
1.000
0.932
1.000
1.000
1.067
1.000
1.000
1.321
5
5
(1, 1, 1): 3
Trough
1.000
1.984
0.939
1.000
1.985
1.069
1.000
1.985
1.306
5
6
(1, 1, 1, 1): 4
Trough
1.000
1.984
0.952
1.000
1.988
1.073
1.000
1.983
1.289
10
4
(2, 2): 4
Trough
1.000
1.000
0.910
1.000
1.000
1.060
1.000
1.000
1.305
10
5
(1, 2, 1): 4
Trough
1.000
1.000
0.930
1.000
1.000
1.060
1.000
1.000
1.303
10
6
(1, 2, 2, 1): 6
Trough
1.000
1.000
0.951
1.000
1.000
1.046
1.000
1.000
1.319
10
4
(2, 2): 4
Mid
0.533
1.446
0.934
0.523
1.444
1.070
0.518
1.431
1.271
10
5
(1, 2, 1): 4
Mid
0.426
2.009
0.922
0.429
2.000
1.057
0.432
2.009
1.266
10
6
(1, 2, 2, 1): 6
Mid
0.632
2.422
0.926
0.636
2.414
1.023
0.637
2.411
1.228
20
4
(4, 4): 8
Mid
1.000
1.000
0.938
1.000
1.000
1.068
1.000
1.000
1.299
20
5
(2, 4, 2): 8
Mid
1.000
1.701
0.929
1.000
1.704
1.037
1.000
1.709
1.268
20
6
(2, 4, 4, 2): 12
Mid
1.000
1.709
0.910
1.000
1.703
1.031
1.000
1.718
1.245
10
4
(2, 2): 4
Peak
0.452
1.422
0.901
0.441
1.433
1.041
0.447
1.428
1.219
10
5
(1, 2, 1): 4
Peak
0.385
1.936
0.906
0.386
1.942
1.012
0.414
1.921
1.203
10
6
(1, 2, 2, 1): 6
Peak
0.545
2.305
0.857
0.545
2.323
0.975
0.552
2.325
1.167
20
4
(4, 4): 8
Peak
1.000
1.000
0.917
1.000
1.000
1.030
1.000
1.000
1.244
20
5
(2, 4, 2): 8
Peak
1.000
1.745
0.890
1.000
1.748
1.003
1.000
1.747
1.208
20
6
(2, 4, 4, 2): 12
Peak
1.000
2.751
0.846
1.000
2.748
0.952
1.000
1.747
1.176
Probability of detection (POD) per “outbreak.”
2Conditional expected delay (CED) per “detected outbreaks.”
3False-positive rate in terms of false-positive signals per year.
4The signature is the number of cases in each week during the outbreak, along with the total number of cases.