Table 3: Effects of taxation/price on smoking initiation, cessation, and prevalence.

Author, yearCountry
(data source)
Study designDates of data collectionPopulation (n)Intervention (currency)Smoking measureEffect on smoking initiation, cessation, or prevalence

                                                        Smoking initiation

Nonnemaker and Farrelly, 2011 [7]US (NLSY97)Longitudinal1997–2006Youths, age 12–17 (8984);
mean age = 15
51% male
Change in real state-level taxes* (1996 US$)Ever smoked a cigaretteOverall
OR (se): 0.88 (0.06), 𝑃 = 0 . 0 6
Elasticity: −0.09
Males
OR (se): 0.93 (0.08), 𝑃 = 0 . 4 1
Elasticity: −0.05
Females
OR (se): 0.81 (0.06), 𝑃 = 0 . 0 0 1
Elasticity: −0.15

Sen and Wirjanto, 2010 [8]Canada (Waterloo Smoking Prevention Project)Longitudinal1993–1996Youths, grade 9 (2364)Change in real excise and sales taxes (C$)Smoked in past monthElasticity: −0.5, 𝑃 < 0 . 1

Tauras, 2005 [10]US (MTF)Longitudinal study1976–1995Youths, high school seniors (5,383)Changes in real price* (1982–1984 US$)Progression from nondaily to daily smokingCoeff. (z-statistic): −0.46 (−2.27), 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5
Elasticity: −0.65

Cawley et al., 2004 [9]US (NLSY97)Longitudinal study1997–2000Youths, ages 12–16 (12,282)Changes in real price* (NR)Smoking any positive quantity of cigarettesCoeff. (z-statistic): −0.15 (−1.45), 𝑃 < 0 . 1
Males
coeff. (z-statistic): −0.28 (−2.03), 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5
Females
coeff. (z-statistic): −0.03 (−0.17), 𝑃 > 0 . 0 5

DeCicca et al., 2002 [11]US (NELS:88)Longitudinal study1988–1992Youths, 8th grade (12,089)Changes in nominal tax* (1988 US$)Daily smokingCoeff. (t value): −0.003 (−1.31), 𝑃 > 0 . 0 5

                                                        Smoking cessation

Ross et al., 2010 [22]US and Canada (ITC)Longitudinal2002–2004Adults (1990):
mean age = 41
41% male
(1) change in real price (US$);
(2) change in province-level cigarette tax (US$)
Quit smoking(1) coeff. (se): 0.0064 (0.0038), 𝑃 < 0 . 1
(2) coeff. (se): 0.0036 (0.0046)

Saenz-de-Miera et al., 2010 [23]Mexico (ITC-Mexico)Longitudinal2006-2007Adults, age 18+ (728):
mean age = 39
61% male
SPST tax increased from 110% of price to retailers to 140% in 2007Quit smoking for at least 30 daysQuit rate: 13.1% (95% CI, 9.7 to 16.5%)

Hanewinkel and Isensee, 2007 [24]Germany (NA)Longitudinal study01/2002–09/2005Adults, age 14+;
mean age 46.5
Before and after each of 5 tax increases (Euros)Quit rates 1–4 months after tax increaseQuit rates ranged from 4% to 7.9%; OR = 1.58, 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5

Tauras and Chaloupka, 1999 [12]US (MTF)Longitudinal studyNRYouths, high school seniorsChanges in real price* (1982–1984 US$)30-day abstinenceMales
Coeff.: 0.746; 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5 ;
Price elasticity: 1.15;
Females
Coeff.: 0.742; 𝑃 < 0 . 0 1 ;
Elasticity: 1.17

Franz, 2008 [25]US (BRFSS)Before/after w/o comparison1993–2000Adults, age 18+Changes in real price* (1995 US$)Quit daily smoking within previous yearBaseline: 13.8%;
Final: 14.3%;
Coeff.: 0.023, 𝑃 < 0 . 0 0 1
Elasticity: 0.375

Reed et al., 2008 [26]US (CTS)Before/after w/o comparison1995–1999Adults, age 25+Before and after Proposition 10 and MSA, which raised price by US$ 0.95 (NA)Quit smoking entirely within previous yearOR = 1.04; 𝑃 = 0 . 7 6

                                                        Smoking prevalence among youth

Grossman, 2005 [13]US (MTF)Time series1975–2003Youths, high school seniorsChanges in real price* (1975 US$)Smoked in past 30 daysCoeff. (t-statistic): −0.12 (−5.23); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5

Tauras and Chaloupka, 1999 [14]US (MTF)Longitudinal study1976–1993Youths, high school seniorsChanges in real price* (1982–1984 US$)Smoked in past 30 daysCoeff (t-ratio): −0.03 (−2.38); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5
Elasticity: −0.10

Kostova et al., 2011 [15]17 LMIC (GYTS)Before/after w/comparison1999–2006Youths, age 13–15Change in real price (2000 US$)Smoked in the past monthElasticity for local brands: −0.74
Elasticity for foreign brands: −1.09

White et al., 2011 [16]Australia (cross-sectional surveys of secondary schools)Before/after w/comparison1990–2005Youths, age 12-17Change in state-specific cigarette prices (2005 AU$)Smoked in the past monthaOR = 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97; 0.99) (1 cent increase in change in price per stick)

Carpenter and Cook, 2008 [17]US (YRBS)Before/after w/o comparison1991–2005Youths, grades 9–12Changes in real price* (2005 US$)Smoked in past 30 daysCoeff. (se): −0.286 (0.101); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 1
Elasticity: −0.56

Ding, 2003 [18]US (MTF)Before/after w/o comparison1976–1998Youths, high school seniorsChanges in real price* (US$)Smoked in past 30 daysElasticity (se): −1.41 (0.83); 𝑃 = 0 . 1 0
Males
Elasticity (se): 0.29 (1.03), 𝑃 = 0 . 7 8
Females
elasticity (se): −2.98 (0.69); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5

Waller et al., 2003 [19]Canada (OSDUS)Before/after w/o comparison1977–2001Youths, grades 7, 9, 11, and 13Before and after a decrease of C$10 in taxes (C$)Smoked > 1 cigarette in past 12 monthsOverall results for smoking prevalence showed a significant discontinuity effect with a negative slope until 1993 and upward jump at the discontinuity point and leveling off after 1993

Gruber, 2000 [20]US (MTF)Before/after w/o comparison1991–1997Youths, grades 8, 10 and 12Changes in real price* (1982 US$)Smoked in past 30 daysCoeff. (se): −0.955 (0.034); 𝑃 > 0 . 0 5
Elasticity: −0.31
8th and 10th graders
Coeff. (se): −0.03 (0.035); 𝑃 > 0 . 0 5
Elasticity: −0.21
12th graders
Coeff. (se): −0.148 (0.078); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5
Elasticity: −0.67

Chaloupka and Pacula, 1998 [21]US (MTF)Before/after w/o comparison1975–1994Youths, grades 8, 10 and 12;
mean age = 16.3
Changes in real price* (1982–1984 US$)Smoked in past 30 daysCoeff. (t-ratio): −0.004 (−2.62); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5
Elasticity: −0.62

                                                        Smoking prevalence among adults

Wakefield et al., 2008 [27]Australia (Roy Morgan Single Source)Time series1995–2006Adults, age 18+Cigarette costliness (NR)Smoke factory-made cigarettesCoeff. (se): −8.802 (2.891); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 0 3

Azagba and Sharaf, 2011 [28]Canada (National Population Health Survey)Longitudinal1999–2009Adults, ages 12–65 (56,770)
mean age = 38
50% male
Changes in real tax (2000 C$)Daily and occasional smokersElasticity: −0.23
Males
elasticity: −0.32; 𝑃 < 0 . 0 1
Females
elasticity: −0.12; 𝑃 > 0 . 1

Lance et al., 2004 [29]China (CHNS); Russia (RLMS)Longitudinal studyChina: 1993–1997; Russia: 1996–2000Adults, age 13+;
100% male
Change in nominal price (China: yuan; Russia: ruble)NRChina
coeff. (se): −0.123 (0.165); 𝑃 > 0 . 0 5
Elasticity = −0.045
Russia
coeff. (se): −0.011 (0.003); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 1
Elasticity = −0.101

Bogdanovica et al., 2011 [38]European Union (Euro-barometer Surveys)Before/after w/o comparison2006–2009Adults, age 15+Change in cigarette affordabilitySmoking prevalenceCorrelation: −0.06; 𝑃 = 0 . 7 7

Siahpush et al., 2009 [30]Australia (Roy Morgan Single Source)Before/after w/o comparison1991–2006Adults, age 18+;
ages 18–29: 21%;
ages 30–49: 41%;
ages 50+: 38%;
48% male
Changes in real price (2006 AU$)Do you now smoke factory-made cigarettes? In the last month, have you smoked any roll-your-own cigarettes?aRR (95% CI) = 0.974 (0.951 to 0.997)
Price × income
Price × medium income: 1.024 (1.015 to 1.023)
Price × high income: 1.025 (1.016 to 1.035)

Gospodinov and Irvine, 2009 [144]Canada (CTUMS)Before/after w/o comparison2000–2005Adults, age 20+Changes in real price, based on Canadian Socioeconomic Information Management system (2001 C$)Occasional or daily smokerCoeff.: −0.0008 (se = 0.0006); 𝑃 > 0 . 0 5
Elasticity: −0.299 (se = 0.224) (95% CI: 0.133–−0.760)

DeCicca and McLeod, 2008 [31]US (BRFSS)Before/after w/o comparison2000–2005Adults, aged 45–65Several state cigarette tax increases* (2001 US$)Daily smokerDaily smoking
Coeff.: −0.0098 (se = 0.0036); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5
Elasticity: −0.21:
smoked on some days
Coeff.: −0.0110 (se = 0.0032); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5
Elasticity: −0.20

Jimenez-Ruiz et al., 2008 [39]Mexico (ENIGH)Before/after w/o comparison1994–2005Adults, age 15+Until 1999, 40% for filter and 15% for unfiltered; in 2005, 45.5% for both filtered and unfiltered (NR)Household spent money on cigarettesCoeff. (t-statistic): −0.0019 (1.77); 𝑃 < 0 . 1 0
Elasticity = −0.06

Franz, 2008 [25]US (BRFSS)Before/after w/o comparison1993–2000Adults, age 18+Changes in real price* (1995 US$)Current smoker and smoked more than 100 cigarettesBaseline: 22.2%
Final: 17.9%
Coeff.: −0.016; 𝑃 < 0 . 0 0 1
Elasticity = −0.193

Franks et al., 2007 [32]US (BRFSS)Before/after w/o comparison1984–2004Adults, age 18+Changes in real price* (2004 US$)Current smoker1984–1996, lowest income quartile
Elasticity: −0.45 (−0.67–−0.22); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 1
1984–1996, other income quartiles
Elasticity: −0.22 (−0.35–−0.10), 𝑃 < 0 . 0 1
19972004, lowest income quartile
Elasticity: −0.14 (−0.36–0.08)
19972004, other income quartiles
Elasticity: −0.07 (−0.18–0.05)

Sloan and Trogdon, 2004 [33]US (BRFSS)Before/after w/o comparison1990–2002Adults, age 18+;
35–46% male
Changes in real price* (2002 US$)Daily or some day smoker18 to 20 years old
Coeff. (se): −0.025 (0.012); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5
21 to 24 years old
Coeff. (se): −0.011 (0.008); 𝑃 > 0 . 0 5
25 to 44 years old
Coeff. (se): −0.009 (0.005); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5
45 to 64 years old
Coeff. (se): −0.008 (0.007); 𝑃 > 0 . 0 5
65+ years old
Coeff. (se): −0.010 (0.004); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 5

Gallus et al., 2003 [34]ItalyBefore/after w/o comparison1970–2000Adults, age 15+Changes in real price, taxes represented 74.7% of cost in 2000 (NR)NRElasticity (se): −0.30 (0.05); 𝑃 < 0 . 0 0 1

Scollo et al., 2003 [35]Australia (NTC)Before/after w/o comparison1997–2000Adults, ages 18–40Multiple changes to the taxation structure, including the end of the State franchise fees in Aug 97, a change from a weight to a stick-based system of levying excise duty in Nov 99, and the imposition of the Goods and Services Tax in Jul 00 (NR)NRPrevalence (May 1997): 29.5%
Prevalence (Nov 1998): 27.9%
Prevalence (Nov 2000): 26.7%
Change percentage from May 1997 to Nov 1998: −5.42%
Change percentage from Nov 1998 to Nov 2000: −4.30%

Arunatilake, 2002 [84]Sri LankaBefore/after w/o comparison1991–2000Age < 20: 40%;
age 20–30: 18%;
age 30–40: 13%;
age 40–50: 12%;
age 50–60: 9%;
age 60+: 8%;
100% male
Annual increases in tax, ranging from 27.6% of selling price in 1995 to 76.8% in 2000 (NR)NRElasticity: 0.10, 𝑃 < 0 . 1

van Walbeek, 2002 [36]South Africa (AMPS)Before/after w/o comparison1993–2000Adults, age 16+;
ages 16–24: 28%;
ages 25–34: 26%;
ages 35–49: 26%;
ages 50+: 21%;
48% male
Increases in the real price of cigarettes by 93% (1995 Rand)Smoking prevalence is defined as the number of respondents who declare cigarette usage expressed as a percentage of the population1993 Prevalence: 32.6%
2000 Prevalence: 27.1%
Change percentage: −16.9%
Elasticity: −0.30

Farrelly et al., 2001 [37]US (NHIS)Before/after w/o comparison1976–1993Adults, age 18+; mean age 43.9;
47% male
Changes in the real price* (1982–1984 US$)Smoked at least 100 cigarettes during lifetime and currently smoke cigarettes every day or some daysElasticity: −0.13
Males
elasticity: −0.03
Females
elasticity: −0.19

*Data obtained from the tax burden on tobacco.
Data was obtained from the Australian Retail Tobacconist.
Unless otherwise specified, elasticity is price participation elasticity (PPE, percentage change in smoking prevalence for one percentage change in price).
All odds ratios and relative risks can be interpreted as the change in outcome comparing the intervention to control group or after versus before an intervention or a unit increase in the intervention (e.g., 1$ in tax increase).
AMPS: All Media and Products Survey; aOR: adjusted odds ratio; AU$: Australian dollars; BRFSS: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; C$: Canadian dollars; CHNS: China Health and Nutrition Survey; CI: confidence interval; Coeff.: coefficient; CTS: California Tobacco Survey; CTUMS: Statistics Canada/Health Canada Canadian Tobacco Use Monitoring Survey; GYTS: Global Youth Tobacco Survey; ENIGH: National Household Income and Expenditure Survey; ITC: International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey; LMIC: low- and middle-income countries; MS: Master Settlement Agreement; MTF: Monitoring the Future: a Continuing Study of American Youth; NA: not applicable; NELS: 88: National Education Longitudinal Survey of 1988; NHIS: National Health Interview Surveys; NLSY97: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort; NR: not reported; NTC: National Tobacco Campaign Evaluation respondent surveys; OR: odds ratio; OSDUS: Ontario Student Drug Use Survey; RLMS: Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey; se: standard error; SPST: special production and services tax; US: United States; US$: United States dollars; YRBS: Youth Risk Behavior Survey.