Current Mathematical Models for Analyzing Anti-Malarial Antibody Data with an Eye to Malaria Elimination and Eradication

Figure 4

Analysis of P. falciparum seropositivity data from Jacareacanga (Brazil) using Bayesian methods. (a) Seroprevalence curves as predicted by RCMs assuming an abrupt reduction in SCR with and without migration and assuming a behavioral factor dependent on a given age cut-off, where dots represent the observed seroprevalence for age groups by splitting the age distribution in deciles. (b) Posterior distributions for the age cut-off for the models mentioned in (a). (c) Posterior probability densities for the reduction in SCR assuming or not migration effects. (d) Posterior median for the fraction of time living in the area in relation to the corresponding age of the individuals, as expected from RCM assuming migration effects and an abrupt reduction in SCR.

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(b)

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