Research Article

Scenarios for Knowledge Integration: Exploring Ecotourism Futures in Milne Bay, Papua New Guinea

Table 2

Perceptions of biggest threat to Milne Bay ecotourism, biggest opportunity for Milne Bay ecotourism and time required to establish a successful ecotourism industry in Milne Bay, pre- and post-scenario exercise.

Biggest threatNumber (%) of participants responding, pre-exerciseNumber (%) of participants responding, post-exercise

 Poor management of (eco)tourism industry5 (27)1 (5)
 Poor governance4 (21)4 (20)
 Extractive industry/overharvesting/exploitation3 (17)3 (15)
 Economy2 (11)3 (15)
 Geography1 (6)0 (0)
 Change in biophysical environment/climate1 (6)8 (40)
 Understanding and awareness1 (6)0 (0)
 Media1 (6)0 (0)
 Political will0 (0)1 (5)

Biggest opportunity
 Cultural link to environment5 (28)3 (16)
 Income for local communities3 (17)2 (11)
 Infrastructure (e.g., international flights, transportation)3 (17)3 (16)
 Marketing and promotion of Milne Bay3 (17)1 (5)
 Funding and support2 (11)0 (0)
 Biodiversity, endemism, uniqueness, and beauty of natural environment1 (6)0 (0)
 Training of tour guides1 (6)3 (16)
 Climate change0 (0)1 (5)
 Technology0 (0)2 (11)
 Marine activities (e.g., diving)0 (0)2 (11)
 Partnerships0 (0)1 (5)
 Friendly people of Milne Bay0 (0)1 (5)

Time required to establish successful ecotourism industry
 At least 1 year but less than 5 years2 (12)1 (6)
 At least 5 years but less than 10 years7 (41)6 (35)
 At least 10 years but less than 20 years7 (41)6 (35)
 At least 20 years1 (6)4 (24)