Optimizing Containment and Control of Candida parapsilosis Fungemia among Neonates in the Outbreak Setting Using a Mathematical Modeling Approach

Figure 2

Proportion of neonates (𝑁=𝑆+𝐶+𝐼) in the NICU by compartment (“𝑆” = susceptibles; “𝐶” = colonized but not infected; “𝐼” = infected with disease as a function of time in days during a candidemia outbreak in the absence of intervention. “𝑉” = reservoir fomite—a colonizing pressure function and not a true state variable. (a) shows baseline model with parameters from Table 1. (b) shows that “𝐶” and “𝐼” are reduced to the same amount when the fomite rate is cut by a 1/3 and the recovery rate is increased 3-fold. (c) shows the dynamics if the readmission rate to “𝐶” and “𝐼” is decreased by 1/2. (d) shows the baseline model if individuals are also discharged from ICU when infected (i.e., adding −𝑑𝐼 term to (3)), with a proportionate decrease in “𝐼” similar to (c).

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)