Monitoring Murder Crime in Namibia Using Bayesian Space-Time Models

Table 5

Posterior mean estimate of the model parameters and the corresponding 95% CI under varying starting values and prior distributions for 𝛽₀ and 𝑢_𝑟𝑡.

			Prior for 𝑢𝑟𝑡
Prior for 𝛽0	Starting values	Parameter	Intrinsic CAR prior		Laplace CAR prior
			Mean	(95% CI)	Mean	(95% CI)
flat( )		exp(𝛽0)	0.936	(0.724,1.126)	0.947	(0.787,1.116)
	tt[1], 𝑢[1], 𝜏𝜉=0.1	𝜎tt	0.082	(0.016,0.281)	0.073	(0.016,0.225)
		𝜎𝑢	0.744	(0.605,0.904)	0.920	(0.809,1.043)
		exp(𝛽0)	0.962	(0.745,1.217)	0.949	(0.787,1.120)
	tt[2], 𝑢[2], 𝜏𝜉=0.01	𝜎tt	0.091	(0.016,0.324)	0.069	(0.016,0.213)
		𝜎𝑢	0.744	(0.605,0.903)	0.920	(0.810,1.043)
		exp(𝛽0)	0.941	(0.684,1.154)	0.970	(0.792,1.176)
	tt[3], 𝑢[3], 𝜏𝜉=0.001	𝜎tt	0.089	(0.016,0.312)	0.079	(0.016,0.263)
		𝜎𝑢	0.744	(0.606,0.904)	0.920	(0.809,1.042)
		exp(𝛽0)	0.947	(0.727,1.156)	0.950	(0.766,1.146)
𝑁(0,1.0^−5)	tt[1], 𝑢[1], 𝜏𝜉=0.1	𝜎tt	0.085	(0.016,0.291)	0.081	(0.016,0.250)
		𝜎𝑢	0.744	(0.606,0.904)	0.920	(0.809,1.043)
		exp(𝛽0)	0.947	(0.721,1.164)	0.956	(0.752,1.182)
	tt[2], 𝑢[2], 𝜏𝜉=0.01	𝜎tt	0.087	(0.016,0.299)	0.089	(0.016,0.312)
		𝜎𝑢	0.744	(0.606,0.904)	0.920	(0.809,1.043)
		exp(𝛽0)	0.953	(0.751,1.169)	0.957	(0.757,1.220)
	tt[3], 𝑢[3], 𝜏𝜉=0.001	𝜎tt	0.083	(0.016,0.277)	0.080	(0.016,0.265)
		𝜎𝑢	0.743	(0.606,0.903)	0.921	(0.809,1.044)