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Journal of Renewable Energy
Volume 2013 (2013), Article ID 368940, 6 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/368940
Research Article

Reliability Measures of Second-Order Semi-Markov Chain Applied to Wind Energy Production

1Dipartimento di Farmacia, Università “G. D'Annunzio” di Chieti-Pescara, 66013 Chieti, Italy
2Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche ed Aziendali, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, 09123 Cagliari, Italy
3Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell'Informazione e di Economia, Università degli Studi dell'Aquila, 67100 L'Aquila, Italy

Received 12 September 2012; Revised 26 November 2012; Accepted 7 December 2012

Academic Editor: Shuhui Li

Copyright © 2013 Guglielmo D'Amico et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

We consider the problem of wind energy production by using a second-order semi-Markov chain in state and duration as a model of wind speed. The model used in this paper is based on our previous work where we have shown the ability of second-order semi-Markov process in reproducing statistical features of wind speed. Here we briefly present the mathematical model and describe the data and technical characteristics of a commercial wind turbine (Aircon HAWT-10 kW). We show how, by using our model, it is possible to compute some of the main dependability measures such as reliability, availability, and maintainability functions. We compare, by means of Monte Carlo simulations, the results of the model with real energy production obtained from data available in the Lastem station (Italy) and sampled every 10 minutes. The computation of the dependability measures is a crucial point in the planning and development of a wind farm. Through our model, we show how the values of this quantity can be obtained both analytically and computationally.