Comparative Analysis on Applicability of Satellite and Meteorological Data for Prediction of Malaria in Endemic Area in Bangladesh

Table 3

Independent evaluation of the best regression model using “Jack knife” technique.

(a) Chittagong: 𝑅²=0.71 (between simulated and observed malaria cases), RMSE = 1.20

Year excluded	Malaria observed	Cases (%) predicted	Bias (%) (𝑌-𝑃)	Relative bias	Estimated trend	Predicted deviation from trend
	(𝑌)	(𝑃)	(𝐵)	(RB %)	(𝑌trend %)	(𝑄 %)
1992	18.18	17.49	−0.69	−2.67	19.20	91.10
1993	18.60	18.44	−0.16	0.25	19.76	93.33
1994	21.91	23.51	1.60	8.23	20.31	115.75
1995	21.95	19.06	−2.89	−12.22	20.86	91.39
1996	22.60	19.22	−3.38	−14.05	21.42	89.73
1997	18.94	19.93	0.99	6.28	21.97	90.70
1998	24.23	24.09	−0.14	0.25	22.52	106.95
1999	24.23	25.03	0.80	4.15	23.07	108.50
2000	23.14	25.33	2.19	10.33	23.63	107.18
2001	23.14	22.79	−0.35	−0.65	24.18	94.24
Mean	21.69	21.49	−0.203	−0.01	21.69	98.89

(b) Sylhet: 𝑅²=0.37 (between simulated and observed malaria cases), RMSE = 4.30

Year excluded	Malaria observed	Cases (%) predicted	Bias (%) (𝑌-𝑃)	Relative bias	Estimated trend	Predicted deviation from trend
	(𝑌)	(P)	(B)	(RB %)	(𝑌trend %)	(𝑄 %)
1992	9.60	15.50	−5.90	9.53	15.91	97.41
1993	12.76	12.50	0.26	7.17	14.88	83.98
1994	21.25	16.37	4.88	4.30	13.85	118.21
1995	20.67	13.67	7.00	4.42	12.82	106.66
1996	12.12	7.49	4.63	7.55	11.78	63.56
1997	7.40	9.68	−2.28	12.36	10.75	90.03
1998	7.03	6.74	0.29	13.01	9.72	69.34
1999	5.85	12.36	−6.51	15.63	8.69	142.27
2000	8.00	6.85	1.15	11.43	7.65	89.59
2001	8.00	6.98	1.02	11.43	6.62	105.50
Mean	11.27	10.81	0.45	9.68	11.27	96.66

(c) Dhaka: 𝑅²=0.83 (between simulated and observed malaria cases), RMSE =1.09

Year excluded	Malaria observed	Cases (%) predicted	Bias (%) (𝑌-𝑃)	Relative bias	Estimated trend	Predicted deviation from trend
	(𝑌)	(𝑃)	(𝐵)	(RB %)	(𝑌trend %)	(𝑄 %)
1992	5.40	6.92	−1.52	10.53	7.24	95.57
1993	7.60	7.64	−0.04	7.48	6.54	116.80
1994	7.70	8.53	−0.83	7.39	5.84	146.13
1995	6.90	5.46	1.44	8.24	5.14	106.31
1996	3.00	1.37	1.63	18.96	4.44	30.87
1997	2.03	3.50	−1.47	28.01	3.74	93.45
1998	2.50	2.56	−0.06	22.75	3.05	83.97
1999	2.40	3.56	−1.16	23.70	2.35	151.59
2000	1.70	2.16	−0.46	33.45	1.65	130.71
2001	1.70	1.07	0.63	33.45	0.95	112.43
Mean	4.09	4.28	−0.18	19.40	4.09	106.78