Graphical interpretation of (a) consistent prediction and (b) inconsistent prediction [200]. and are the “true” dynamics and model, respectively. is the true state at time and the observed state at that time is . is an observational uncertainty sphere of radius. In (a) the shaded region indicates that there is a subset of forecasts made with that are indistinguishable from the “true” state within observational uncertainty. Figure reproduced from [179].
