Research Article
Combining Diffusion and Grey Models Based on Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms to Forecast Motherboard Shipments
Table 4
MAPE results for all models.
| | Actual value (1998–2009) |
Bass diffusion model with GA |
RGM(1,1) |
Combined model with GA |
Combined model with PSO |
Combined model with hybrid | | Forecast value | APE | Forecast value | APE | Forecast value | APE | Forecast value | APE | Forecast value | APE |
| | 54371 | 53341.4 | 1.89% | 54371.0 | 0.00% | 54371.0 | 0.00% | 54371.0 | 0.00% | 54371.0 | 0.00% | | 64378 | 63672.5 | 1.10% | 70118.2 | 8.92% | 70118.2 | 8.92% | 70118.2 | 8.92% | 70118.2 | 8.92% | | 84372 | 74572.8 | 11.61% | 78981.5 | 6.39% | 78981.5 | 6.39% | 78981.5 | 6.39% | 78981.5 | 6.39% | | 80565 | 85418.4 | 6.02% | 80332.1 | 0.29% | 80332.1 | 0.29% | 80332.1 | 0.29% | 80332.1 | 0.29% | | 86554 | 95384.7 | 10.20% | 90733.6 | 4.83% | 90733.6 | 4.83% | 90733.6 | 4.83% | 90733.6 | 4.83% | | 103509 | 103536.0 | 0.03% | 104846.9 | 1.29% | 104025.0 | 0.50% | 103455.9 | 0.05% | 103508.9 | 0.00% | | 107987 | 108981.6 | 0.92% | 110227.0 | 2.07% | 109968.1 | 1.83% | 110500.6 | 2.33% | 110509.9 | 2.34% | | 113354 | 111064.0 | 2.02% | 115310.7 | 1.73% | 112262.6 | 0.96% | 113381.9 | 0.02% | 113353.8 | 0.00% | | 111117 | 109518.5 | 1.44% | 114251.3 | 2.82% | 110594.3 | 0.47% | 111646.9 | 0.48% | 111594.8 | 0.43% | | 109097 | 104542.2 | 4.18% | 104393.6 | 4.31% | 105192.5 | 3.58% | 105570.4 | 3.23% | 105510.7 | 3.29% | | 96743 | 96742.4 | 0.00% | 95386.5 | 1.40% | 96766.3 | 0.02% | 96066.0 | 0.70% | 96013.4 | 0.75% | | 84374 | 86987.2 | 3.10% | 87156.6 | 3.30% | 86316.8 | 2.30% | 84412.1 | 0.05% | 84376.4 | 0.00% |
| | MAPE (1998–2009) | | 3.692% | | 3.395% | | 2.736% | | 2.480% | | 2.476% | | Actual value (2010) | | | | | | | | | | | | 68687 | 76216.5 | 10.96% | 79636.7 | 15.94% | 74907.0 | 9.06% | 71922.0 | 4.71% | 71906.9 | 4.69% |
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APE: absolute percentage error.
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