Set Pair Analysis Based on Phase Space Reconstruction Model and Its Application in Forecasting Extreme Temperature

Table 4

Prediction results and the corresponding relative errors (REs).

Year	Measured value (0.1/°C)	AR model		BP model		R-SPA model		SPA-PSR model
		P (0.1/°C)	RE (%)	P (0.1/°C)	RE (%)	P (0.1/°C)	RE (%)	P (0.1/°C)	RE (%)
2000	361	325.44	9.85	338.18	6.32	313.79	13.08	331.21	8.25
2001	355	310.31	12.59	312.06	12.10	334.54	5.76	317.05	10.69
2002	357	320.83	10.13	324.77	9.03	338.44	5.20	354.39	0.73
2003	324	310.33	4.22	278.54	14.03	350.04	8.04	345.62	6.67
2004	333	323.09	2.98	323.39	2.89	351.28	5.49	345.68	3.81
2005	341	325.48	4.55	280.00	17.89	365.02	7.05	335.29	1.67
2006	335	320.68	4.27	322.46	3.74	327.98	2.10	344.97	2.98
2007	345	328.86	4.68	346.26	0.37	343.53	0.43	367.30	6.46
2008	379	327.16	13.68	321.26	15.23	328.10	13.43	336.75	11.15
2009	360	310.04	13.88	332.43	7.66	347.50	3.47	326.48	9.31
2010	392	310.39	20.82	321.35	18.02	332.37	15.21	351.54	10.32