Research Article
An ARMA Type Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Method Based on Particle Swarm Optimization
Table 5
The forecasts produced by the proposed methods.
| Years | Fuzzy forecasts | Defuzzified forecasts |
| 1972 | 0.8768 | 0.5000 | 0.1475 | 0.0458 | 0.5824 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 13458.81 | 1973 | 0.9839 | 0.5000 | 0.1475 | 0.0458 | 0.5824 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 13458.81 | 1974 | 0.5000 | 0.7128 | 0.1709 | 0.1709 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 14700.56 | 1975 | 0.9999 | 0.2359 | 0.9999 | 0.0458 | 0.4169 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 15395.91 | 1976 | 0.7084 | 0.3526 | 0.9463 | 0.0458 | 0.0312 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 15379.31 | 1977 | 0.7084 | 0.3526 | 0.9679 | 0.0458 | 0.0128 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 15379.31 | 1978 | 0.5767 | 0.3526 | 0.5767 | 0.0458 | 0.3178 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 15673.54 | 1979 | 0.5122 | 0.5000 | 0.7212 | 0.0079 | 0.9824 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 16412.94 | 1980 | 0.0078 | 0.0410 | 0.2108 | 0.0031 | 0.5000 | 0.0078 | 0.5000 | 17217.39 | 1981 | 0.0009 | 0.0035 | 0.2108 | 0.0004 | 0.9019 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 16412.94 | 1982 | 0.0026 | 0.5000 | 0.9939 | 0.0006 | 0.1144 | 0.0000 | 0.0026 | 15379.31 | 1983 | 0.7084 | 0.3526 | 0.9769 | 0.0458 | 0.0127 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 15379.31 | 1984 | 0.7084 | 0.3526 | 0.8823 | 0.0458 | 0.0737 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 15379.31 | 1985 | 0.6905 | 0.3526 | 0.6905 | 0.0458 | 0.1919 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 15517.4 | 1986 | 0.5000 | 0.3526 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 0.1599 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 15987.15 | 1987 | 0.5122 | 0.5000 | 0.7212 | 0.0163 | 0.9388 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 16412.94 | 1988 | 0.0010 | 0.0045 | 0.2108 | 0.0004 | 0.5000 | 0.0010 | 0.5000 | 17318.67 | 1989 | 0.3198 | 0.1281 | 0.2108 | 0.0504 | 0.2432 | 0.0767 | 0.4516 | 19075.31 | 1990 | 0.3198 | 0.0017 | 0.1446 | 0.0009 | 0.0025 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 19075.31 | 1991 | 0.3198 | 0.0073 | 0.1446 | 0.0040 | 0.0104 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 19075.31 | 1992 | 0.3198 | 0.0077 | 0.1446 | 0.0042 | 0.0110 | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 19075.31 |
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