Research Article
Statistical Methods for Predicting Malaria Incidences Using Data from Sudan
Table 5
Models, parameter estimates, and fit statistics for malaria incidence: North Kordofan State.
| Model | Variable | Coefficient | Std. error | -statistic | Prob. | | AIC | MAE |
| ARIMA | | 841.29 | 26.04 | 32.31 | <0.001 | 0.75 | 13.13 | 427.14 | AR(1) | 1.72 | 0.01 | 128.39 | <0.001 | AR(2) | −0.99 | 0.01 | −73.14 | <0.001 | MA(1) | −1.70 | 0.01 | −166.85 | <0.001 | MA(2) | 0.98 | | 81859.26 | <0.001 |
| Exponential smoothing | | 62.05 | 31.98 | 1.94 | 0.059 | 0.45 | 13.20 | 211.28 | AR(1) | 0.64 | 0.18 | 3.47 | 0.001 | AR(2) | −0.95 | 0.23 | −4.12 | <0.001 | MA(1) | −0.72 | 0.384 | −1.87 | 0.068 | MA(2) | 1.54 | 0.40 | 3.83 | <0.001 |
| Transformation | | 0.01 | | 195.40 | <0.001 | 0.73 | −13.61 | 0.0003 | AR(1) | 1.73 | 0.01 | 126.89 | <0.001 | AR(2) | −1.00 | 0.02 | −65.39 | <0.001 | MA(1) | −1.70 | 0.03 | −58.41 | <0.001 | MA(2) | 0.98 | 0.00 | 334.60 | <0.001 |
| Moving average | | −3.03 | 0.62 | −4.85 | <0.001 | 0.25 | 9.55 | 47.95 | AR(1) | 0.44 | 0.14 | 3.11 | 0.003 | MA(1) | −0.97 | 0.03 | −34.56 | <0.001 |
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