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Modelling and Simulation in Engineering
Volume 2012 (2012), Article ID 671934, 9 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/671934
Research Article

Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

1College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
2Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China

Received 4 April 2012; Accepted 27 September 2012

Academic Editor: Agostino Bruzzone

Copyright © 2012 Zou Tao et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA), this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA) is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD) is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.