Table 2: Performance of 24 candidate post-biochemical failure risk categorization schemes (BFRC)* in univariable competing risk models for prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) after biochemical failure.

BFRC modelHigh riskLow riskIntermediate riskBFRC model performance§
PSADTTTBFHR (95% CI) PSADTTTBFHR HR (95% CI)c-Index (95% CI)Rank value#

197<3<16.1(3.8–9.8)231>9>411572.7(1.8–4.3)0.724(0.685–0.763)70.32
2113<3<1.55.1(3.3–7.7)267>6>411052.7(1.8–4.2)0.719(0.678–0.760)80.28
3129<3<1.55.6(3.5–9.0)222>9>411342.7(1.7–4.3)0.718(0.679–0.757)90.15
4163<3<25.2(3.2–8.5)212>9>411102.8(1.6–4.7)0.705(0.668–0.743)130.013
5166<3<25.1(3.2–8.3)221>12>31982.9(1.7–4.9)0.697(0.658–0.736)170.007
6171<3<27.3(3.9–13.7)183>12>411313.9(2.1–7.5)0.695(0.657–0.733)190.004
7119<4<15.7(3.7–8.8)246>9>311202.6(1.7–4.2)0.732(0.695–0.769)1#
8119<4<17.0(4.3–11.3)225>12>311413.1(1.9–5.1)0.730(0.693–0.767)20.70
9120<4<18.2(4.8–14.1)208>24>311573.5(2.0–6.0)0.729(0.692–0.767)30.68
10188<4<28.1(4.2–15.5)180>12>411173.7(1.9–7.3)0.705(0.669–0.741)140.019
11196<4<27.4(3.8–14.7)163>18>411262.9(1.4–5.9)0.697(0.661–0.733)160.005
12196<4<28.0(3.9–16.4)159>24>411303.1(1.4–6.5)0.697(0.660–0.733)180.005
13150<5<17.6(4.4–13.0)201>24>311343.4(1.9–6.0)0.727(0.691–0.762)40.55
14149<5<15.2(3.4–7.9)239>9>31972.5(1.5–4.1)0.726(0.691–0.762)50.41
15149<5<16.3(3.9–10.3)218>12>311183.1(1.8–5.1)0.726(0.690–0.762)60.45
16201<5<28.4(4.3–16.6)173>12>411113.9(1.9–7.9)0.700(0.665–0.735)150.007
17209<5<27.8(3.8–15.9)156>18>411203.0(1.4–6.4)0.693(0.658–0.728)200.002
18209<5<28.5(4.0–18.2)152>24>411243.2(1.4–7.2)0.693(0.658–0.728)210.002
19141<6<15.0(3.3–7.7)235>18>211092.4(1.5–3.9)0.714(0.676–0.753)100.18
20184<6<16.8(3.9–11.8)190>24>311112.7(1.5–5.0)0.713(0.679–0.748)110.07
21140<6<14.7(3.1–7.1)242>12>211032.4(1.5–3.8)0.712(0.674–0.751)120.12
22220<6<27.7(3.9–15.0)167>12>41983.3(1.6–6.9)0.691(0.657–0.725)220.001
23228<6<27.0(3.5–14.3)150>18>411072.4(1.1–5.3)0.685(0.651–0.719)23<0.001
24228<6<27.7(3.6–16.4)146>24>411112.6(1.1–6.0)0.685(0.651–0.719)24<0.001

PSA: prostate-specific antigen; BFRC: biochemical failure risk categorization; : number of patients; PSADT: PSA doubling time (months); TTBF: time from biochemical (Phoenix) failure (years); HR: hazard ratio; CI: confidence interval; c-index: Harrell’s concordance index.
*BFRC schemes presented include the best and worst three schemes for each high risk PSADT cutpoint from the 72 evaluable schemes.
Risk is defined by PSADT and/or TTBF ranges specified.
PSADT and TTBF ranges are intermediate between the high and low risk ranges.
§Performance assessed by C-index, ranked highest (best) to lowest (worst). Performance against best BFRC compared using paired Student’s -test.
#The best BFRC scheme.
A -value for the paired Student’s t-test indicates that the BFRC model is significantly worse (less predictive) than the best BRFC model.