Table 3: Point estimates for the time to the next reactor accident with INES level 5 and the number of expected accidents within 20 yr for three scenarios concerning the change of the world's reactor numbers (95% CI in brackets).

Scenario for change in reactor numbers Rate of change in reactor numbers
(1/yr)
Time to next accident
(yr)
Number of expected accidents in 20 yr

( 1 ) No change ± 0.0 10.7 (3.7; 52) 1.9 (0.39; 5.5)
( 2 ) Growing +3.7 9.9 (3.5; 39) 2.0 (0.42; 5.9)
( 3 ) Decreasing −1.7 11.1 (3.7; 71) 1.8 (0.37; 5.3)