Table 3:
Point estimates for the time to the next reactor accident with INES level
≥
5 and the number of expected accidents within 20 yr for three scenarios concerning the change of the world's reactor numbers (95% CI in brackets).
Scenario for change in reactor numbers
Rate of change in reactor numbers
(1/yr)
Time to next accident
(yr)
Number of expected accidents in 20 yr
(
1
)
No change
±
0.0
10.7 (3.7; 52)
1.9 (0.39; 5.5)
(
2
)
Growing
+3.7
9.9 (3.5; 39)
2.0 (0.42; 5.9)
(
3
)
Decreasing
−1.7
11.1 (3.7; 71)
1.8 (0.37; 5.3)