Empirical Risk Analysis of Severe Reactor Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima

Table 3

Point estimates for the time to the next reactor accident with INES level ≥5 and the number of expected accidents within 20 yr for three scenarios concerning the change of the world's reactor numbers (95% CI in brackets).

Scenario for change in reactor numbers	Rate of change in reactor numbers; (1/yr)	Time to next accident; (yr)	Number of expected accidents in 20 yr
(1) No change	±0.0	10.7 (3.7; 52)	1.9 (0.39; 5.5)
(2) Growing	+3.7	9.9 (3.5; 39)	2.0 (0.42; 5.9)
(3) Decreasing	−1.7	11.1 (3.7; 71)	1.8 (0.37; 5.3)