The Convergence Coefficient across Political Systems

Table 6

The convergence coefficient in anocracies.

	Georgia	Russia	Azerbaijan^d
	2008	2007	2010
Weight of policy differences (𝛽)
Est. 𝛽; (conf. Int.^a)	0.78; (0.66, 0.89)	0.181; (0.15, 0.20)	1.34; (0.77, 1.91)
	Electoral variance (trace∇=𝜎^2)
𝜎^2	1.73	5.90	0.93
Probability of voting for lowest valence party (party 1, 𝜌1=∑^𝑝𝑘=1exp(𝜆𝑘−𝜆1)^−1)
	N^c	SR^b	AXCP-MP^d
Est. 𝜌1; (conf. Int.^a)	𝜌^GN=0.05; (0.03, 0.07)	𝜌^RSR= 0.07; (0.04, 0.12)	𝜌AXCP-MP=0.21; (0.08, 0.47)
Convergence coefficient (𝑐≡𝑐(𝝀,𝛽,𝜎^2)=2𝛽[1−2𝜌1]𝜎^2)
Est. 𝑐; (conf. Int.^a)	2.42; (1.99, 2.89)	1.83; (1.35, 2.28)	1.44; (0.085, 2.984)

aConf. Int.: confidence intervals.
^bGeorgia: N: Natelashvili.
^cRussia: SR: Fair Russia.
^dAzerbaijan: AXCP-MP: Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (AXCP) and Musavat (MP).
The estimates for Azerbaijan are less precise because the sample is small.