The Scientific World Journal

Research Article

A Grey Self-Memory Coupling Prediction Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

Table 4

Comparison of four different models for electricity consumption in China (unit: 100 million kW·h).


Years	Actual values	GM model		GM + three-point model		NGM model		NGM + self-memory model
Years	Actual values	Simulative values	(%)	Simulative values	(%)	Simulative values	(%)	Simulative values	(%)

1999	12304.71	12304.71	0.00	13019.57	5.81	12304.71	0.00	—	—
2000	13472.38	14449.29	7.25	14275.93	5.96	11872.22	11.88	—	—
2001	14723.46	16073.79	9.17	16134.67	9.58	14038.59	4.65	—	—
2002	16465.45	17880.94	8.60	17948.66	9.01	16338.71	0.77	16389.34	0.46
2003	19031.60	19891.26	4.52	19966.59	4.91	18780.82	1.32	18696.47	1.76
2004	21971.37	22127.59	0.71	22211.40	1.09	21373.68	2.72	22793.26	3.74
2005	24940.32	24615.35	1.31	24708.58	0.93	24126.62	3.26	25177.32	0.95
2006	28587.97	27382.80	4.22	27486.52	3.85	27049.50	5.38	27923.64	2.32
2007	32711.81	30461.39	6.88	30576.77	6.53	30152.82	7.82	31833.53	2.68
2008	34541.35	33886.11	1.90	34014.45	1.53	33447.72	3.17	35697.92	3.35
2009	37032.14	37695.85	1.79	37838.63	2.18	36946.02	0.23	36937.38	0.26
2010	41934.49	41933.92	0.00	42092.75	0.38	40660.28	3.04	41689.98	0.58
2011	47000.88	46648.47	0.75	46825.15	0.37	44603.84	5.10	46905.23	0.20
2012	49762.64	51893.06	4.28	50144.86	0.77	48790.85	1.95	50099.17	0.68
MAPE (%)			3.83		3.78		3.66		1.54

There are no simulative values from year 1999 to 2001 owing to the retrospective order .