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Veterinary Medicine International
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 202618, 10 pages
Research Article

A Qualitative Assessment of the Risk of Introducing Peste des Petits Ruminants into Northern Zambia from Tanzania

1Department of Veterinary Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, P.O. Box 830011, Mumbwa, Zambia
2Department of Disease Control, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia, P.O. Box 32379, Lusaka, Zambia
3Independent Policy Researcher, 4639 D Santa Cruz Drive, Indianapolis, IN 46268, USA
4Department of Veterinary Medicine and Public Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3021, Morogoro, Tanzania

Received 6 August 2013; Accepted 18 October 2013; Published 12 January 2014

Academic Editor: Timm C. Harder

Copyright © 2014 R. Chazya et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


A qualitative risk assessment was performed to evaluate the risk of introducing Peste des petits ruminants virus into northern Zambia from Tanzania via live goat trade. Data was collected during a mission to Tanzania and northern Zambia and also from literature and interviews with experts. The risk of PPRV introduction was evaluated as a function of the probability of hazard (PPRV) release, exposure of susceptible hosts, and the consequences of spread using the following parameters: prevalence of infection, volume of trade, C-ELISA and quarantine screening missing an infected animal, PPRV viability (remaining infective) in transit, and the virus potential for infection. The magnitude of the consequences was derived from the probability of transmission and spread and the impact of PPRV introduction and establishment. Accordingly, the probability of occurrence of PPRV in northern Zambia from Tanzania was rated as “high” and the economic consequences were also rated as “high.” Finally, the overall risk of introducing PPRV into northern Zambia from Tanzania at the time of the assessment was rated “high.” It was concluded that import of goats and sheep be prohibited until efficient and adequate measures to reduce the risk have been put in place.