Table 2: Pairwise cross-correlations (upper) and multivariate statistics at 0-1 yr lead time. Variables are: Sal1: mode-1 salinity 0–200 m, Temp1: mode-1 temperature 0–200 m, Z3: mode-3 850 hPa geopotential height, Rain: rainfall over South Africa and Agulhas Current, SALa: Salinity 0–200 m Agulhas Current, SSHa: sea surface height Agulhas Current, Ua: zonal component of Agulhas Current, Va: meridional component of Agulhas Current, Tugl: Tugela River outflow, Nino3: central Pacific SST. Most influential variable is Salinity in the Agulhas Current (SAL a).

Cross-correlation of variable with fish catch

Sal1−0.38Temp1+0.34
Z3+0.26Tugl−0.44
Rain−0.40SALa−0.55
SSHa+0.28Ua+0.37
Va+0.30Nino3+0.29

Regression model summary output

Multiple R0.73
Adj R Sq0.46
St. Error0.73
Sample31

dfSSMSF

Regression415.994.007.42
Residual2614.010.54

CoeffSt Errort StatP val

Temp10.470.172.720.01
SALa–0.530.16–3.240.00
Ua0.340.201.670.11
Z30.360.221.660.11