Land Use Change from Biofuels Derived from Forest Residue: A Case of Washington State
Table 2
Marginal effect of land use model.
Land use in 2007
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Any
Development
Agriculture
Forest
Undeveloped
Development (2010)
Returns to development
***
***
***
7
***
()
()
()
()
()
Returns to agriculture
***
*
***
()
()
()
()
()
Returns to forestry
−0.00262***
*
**
0.000446***
()
()
()
()
()
Distance to urban growth
−0.00115***
0.000146
−0.000209**
0.000232
Area
(0.000211)
()
()
()
(0.000166)
No. of feedstock processors
−0.00662***
−0.00213***
0.000338
0.00219**
(/ 200 miles)
(0.00106)
(0.000371)
(0.000463)
(0.000138)
(0.000882)
Soil Class 1
0.0623***
0.00311
−0.00319
0.000393
−0.00864
(0.00742)
(0.00230)
(0.00254)
(0.00101)
(0.00612)
Soil Class 2
0.0359***
0.00591**
−0.00495**
−0.000263
0.00192
(0.00545)
(0.00234)
(0.00228)
(0.000674)
(0.00489)
Soil Class 3
0.0152**
0.00487**
−0.00518**
−0.000592
0.00156
(0.00744)
(0.00210)
(0.00252)
(0.000881)
(0.00645)
Property tax
−0.0103
0.000958
−0.00357
−0.00223
−0.0306**
(0.0149)
(0.00531)
(0.00716)
(0.00225)
(0.0124)
% Neighbors in agriculture
0.497***
0.0242***
0.0314***
0.00944***
0.106***
(0.0116)
(0.00452)
(0.00827)
(0.00234)
(0.0107)
% Neighbors in development
0.0505***
0.0138**
−0.00697
−0.00270
0.0950***
(0.0147)
(0.00570)
(0.00687)
(0.00317)
(0.0130)
% Neighbors in forestry
−0.490***
0.0245***
0.0156**
−0.00241
0.0515***
(0.0103)
(0.00437)
(0.00715)
(0.00192)
(0.00984)
Neighbors returns to development
0.00285***
(0.000117)
Neighbors returns to forestry
***
()
Agriculture (2010)
Returns to development
***
***
***
***
()
()
()
()
()
Returns to agriculture
***
***
***
***
()
()
()
()
)
Returns to forestry
−0.000321***
***
−0.000355***
**
()
()
()
()
()
Distance to urban growth
−0.000164***
***
0.000607***
*
−0.000131***
Area
()
()
(0.000170)
()
()
No. of feedstock processors
0.000661***
0.000228***
−0.00367***
0.000417*
(/ 200 miles)
(0.000200)
()
(0.000840)
()
(0.000215)
Soil Class 1
0.0198***
0.00346**
0.00352
0.00474**
0.0206***
(0.00192)
(0.00137)
(0.00565)
(0.00193)
(0.00655)
Soil Class 2
0.0105***
0.000838***
0.00245
0.00171***
0.00526***
(0.00104)
(0.000263)
(0.00466)
(0.000560)
(0.00130)
Soil Class 3
−0.00187
0.000277
−0.0200***
0.000230
(0.00122)
(0.000568)
(0.00677)
(0.000691)
(0.00194)
Property tax
−0.00541*
−0.00144*
−0.0205
−0.00226*
−0.00589*
(0.00320)
(0.000763)
(0.0135)
(0.00137)
(0.00333)
% Neighbors in agriculture
0.0129***
−0.00113***
−0.0141
−0.00185
0.00244
(0.00245)
−0.000436
−0.0149
−0.00148
−0.00206
% Neighbors in development
0.147***
.000403
0.0445***
0.00461***
0.0105***
(0.00478)
−0.000483
−0.0114
.00127
−0.00216
% Neighbors in forestry
−0.0261***
−0.00250***
−0.00553
−0.00193*
−0.00147
(0.00223)
−0.000566
−0.0126
−0.00107
−0.00202
Neighbors returns to development
0.000185***
()
Neighbors returns to forestry
***
()
Forestry (2010)
Returns to development
5***
***
**
***
()
()
()
()
()
Returns to agriculture
5***
***
***
**
5***
()
()
()
()
()
Returns to forestry
0.00452***
**
0.000188***
***
(0.000105)
()
()
()
()
Distance to urban growth
**
−0.000226**
−0.000244***
Area
(0.000222)
(5)
()
()
()
No. of feedstock processors
0.0137***
0.000612***
−0.000329
0.00124***
(/ 200 miles)
(0.00119)
(0.000105)
(0.000446)
(0.000280)
(0.000294)
Soil Class 1
−0.0666***
−0.000687
0.00701*
***
0.00224
(0.00744)
(0.000495)
(0.00382)
(0.00311)
(0.00263)
Soil Class 2
−0.0423***
0.000400
−0.00169
***
0.00543***
(0.00576)
(0.000404)
(0.00221)
(0.00150)
(0.00146)
Soil Class 3
−0.0253***
−0.000365
0.00446
0.000914
0.00451*
(0.00769)
(0.000597)
(0.00320)
(0.00198)
(0.00272)
Property tax
−0.0475***
−0.00546***
0.0482***
0.00295
*
(0.0181)
(0.00157)
(0.00796)
(0.00479)
(0.00530)
% Neighbors in agriculture
−0.0405***
−0.00143
0.00284
0.00717
0.00151
(0.0144)
(0.00110)
(0.00794)
(0.00444)
(0.00338)
% Neighbors in development
0.243***
−0.00620***
−0.0134**
0.0199***
***
(0.0171)
(0.00177)
(0.00595)
(0.00556)
(0.00484)
% Neighbors in forestry
1.243***
0.00146
0.0267***
0.0325***
0.0128***
(0.0122)
(0.000937)
(0.00630)
(0.00330)
(0.00269)
Neighbors returns to development
−0.00400***
(0.000130)
Neighbors returns to forestry
5***
()
Undeveloped (2010)
Returns to development
***
***
***
***
***
()
()
()
()
()
Returns to agriculture
***
***
***
()
()
()
()
()
Returns to forestry
−0.00158***
***
−0.000510***
()
()
()
()
()
Distance to urban growth
0.00131***
−0.000171
**
0.000143
Area
(0.000162)
()
(0.000113)
()
(0.000181)
No. of feedstock processors
−0.00777***
0.00129***
0.00366***
0.000113
−0.00385***
(/ 200 miles)
(0.000902)
(0.000352)
(0.000548)
(0.000234)
(0.000948)
Soil Class 1
−0.0155***
−0.00588***
−0.00734**
0.00454**
−0.0142
(0.00581)
(0.00179)
(0.00336)
(0.00225)
(0.00900)
Soil Class 2
−0.00415
−0.00715***
0.00420
0.00324***
−0.0126**
(0.00457)
(0.00229)
(0.00346)
(0.00122)
(0.00523)
Soil Class 3
0.0119**
−0.00478**
0.0207***
−0.000329
−0.00630
(0.00602)
(0.00193)
(0.00553)
(0.00164)
(0.00716)
Property tax
0.0632***
0.00594
−0.0241***
0.00155
0.0469***
(0.0126)
(0.00502)
(0.00824)
(0.00400)
(0.0137)
% Neighbors in agriculture
−0.469***
−0.0216***
−0.0202**
−0.0148***
−0.110***
(0.00925)
(0.00436)
(0.00962)
(0.00347)
(0.0113)
% Neighbors in development
−0.441***
−0.00721
−0.0241***
−0.0218***
−0.0921***
(0.0112)
(0.00540)
(0.00695)
(0.00440)
(0.0139)
% Neighbors in forestry
−0.728***
−0.0234***
−0.0367***
−0.0282***
−0.0628***
(0.00771)
(0.00423)
(0.00829)
(0.00247)
(0.0103)
Neighbors returns to development
0.000970***
()
Neighbors returns to forestry
***
()
Pseudo-
0.3454
0.1297
0.0792
0.0556
0.0714
Observations
113,953
33,380
14,229
43,740
22,609
Reading across the column within a section displays the marginal effects on that section’s predicted land use in 2010, given the 2007 land use shown in the column. For example, the agriculture section in column (3) reports the marginal effects on the probability of being in agriculture in 2007 given that the parcel was in forestry in 2007. Standard errors in parentheses; *** < 0.01, ** < 0.05, * < 0.1.
